Somaliland move may cost India African goodwill
· Citizen
The emergence of a new axis in the strategic Red Sea corridor following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state in defiance of the international community could impact New Delhi’s “special” relationship with Africa.
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This new axis linking Israel, India, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia is coalescing around control of the Middle East and Horn of Africa’s most vital maritime chokepoints.
At its core is the Gulf of Aden – the artery between Yemen and Somalia – funnelling traffic between the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical gateway between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa.
Somaliland’s recognition by Israel as an independent state has dramatically altered the geopolitical calculus along one of the most strategic maritime corridors, prompting concern in Beijing, Ankara, Cairo and Riyadh.
Somaliland overlooks one of the world’s busiest maritime arteries.
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As such, it is a strategic gold mine offering a platform for Israel and its partners to secure the coastline and open the way for military cooperation and infrastructure expansion.
Gaining access through Somaliland’s Port of Berbera to the strategic route will strengthen Tel Aviv’s efforts to counter Iran’s endeavours to move physically closer to Israel by securing the Red Sea region as a southern maritime gateway.
Israel’s move also aims to counter Türkiye’s efforts to entrench its political and military influence in Somalia and adjacent maritime routes, and China’s influence in East Africa.
The Israeli move in the Horn of Africa aligns closely with India’s strategic aim of securing maritime trade routes in the region and creating a counterweight to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Somaliland offers New Delhi an opportunity to advance its maritime strategy whilst complementing its ties with the UAE and growing security cooperation with Israel.
ALSO READ: SA condemns Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as ‘violation of sovereignty’
It also coincides with New Delhi’s desire for an alternative to China’s BRI in Africa.
Although India has not followed Israel in recognising Somaliland as an independent entity, its participation in creating the new Red Sea axis could complicate New Delhi’s relationship with Africa.
New Delhi now risks being seen by some African countries as a divisive force as the African Union upholds post-colonial border integrity and, like the rest of the international community, opposes the recognition of Somalia as an independent state.
As a result, India’s image as a neutral and trusted anchor in Africa may be jeopardised.
India’s involvement in the Red Sea axis promises enhanced security and infrastructure investment while complicating relations due to its alignment with regional actors, particularly South Africa, whose support for the Palestinian cause and legal action against Israel at the International Court of Justice makes India’s cooperation with an “Israel-led” axis challenging.
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