Will derby be downfall for Eddie Howe at Newcastle or can he save the season?
· Yahoo Sports
Newcastle United are reeling, losers of two to hated newly-promoted rivals Sunderland in the same week they exited Europe with seven goals conceded to Barcelona, and Eddie Howe saw another great plan turn into more dropped points from a winning position.
Is this it for the League Cup-winning boss on Tyneside?
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Or can a strong finish to the season and an increasingly-unlikely return to Europe save his spot?
MORE — Howe, Gordon react to derby loss
To be clear, the Magpies had played a lot more matches than Sunderland and were without star midfielders Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali (and growing star Lewis Miley).
But they showed their superiority to their rivals in the first half, producing many more chances and taking a lead to the break before falling apart under Regis Le Bris' tweaks and having zero answers the rest of the way.
MORE — Newcastle v Sunderland recap, video highlights
Managerial consistency is huge for a club and Howe ended Newcastle's long wait for a trophy. He's been very good for the club but this season has been very poor outside of the Champions League group stage and the club's summer transfers have been a mixed bag at best with Howe reportedly a big part of those decisions.
About six weeks ago we questioned whether Howe should be on the hot seat or if this was a prolonged spell of bad luck — we asked whether his Newcastle were in a rut of a crevasse.
Right now, it looks like the latter. Is change on the cards? Should it be?
Will derby be downfall for Eddie Howe at Newcastle or can he save the season?
The first derby at Sunderland saw an own goal the only marker as both teams played for a point and the Black Cats came away with three. Howe took some heat for not trying to take the game to Sunderland, and he changed his tune for the home derby. The Magpies were all over Sunderland for 45 minutes but only scored once. Le Bris' changes made the difference. Newcastle had no answers.
The Magpies had a solid Champions League season and many will be asking what might've been had Bruno Guimaraes been able to feature against Barcelona. But their Premier League season has been close to abject. If sixth place is the Europa League and seventh is the Conference League, the 12th-place Magpies are one of seven teams within four points of the seventh-place Bees with seven matches to play.
Combine that status with the six points they've given Sunderland — newly-promoted and ahead of them by a point — and you've got the makings of a possible sea change.
Points will be there for Newcastle the rest of the way and Howe won't have to deal with any fixture congestion. They go away to Palace, Arsenal, Forest, and Fulham. They are home to Bournemouth, Brighton, and West Ham. Four of those teams are in the group of seven trying to get to (at least) seventh. Two are in the bottom three mess. Arsenal will likely still be dealing with fixture congestion.
The end-of-season is huge for Newcastle, who already have several players in the transfer rumor mill, two of whom are in their impressive midfield. Guimaraes, the club captain and a Tyneside icon, has been linked with Real Madrid. Sandro Tonali, just as important as Guimaraes, is a reported person of interest for Manchester United. Anthony Gordon is well-admired by Liverpool. Keeping them with European action could be tough. Without it?
How much of the C- transfer performances are on Eddie Howe?
Howe's work with Newcastle's new signings has been perplexing at best. Huge center forward signing Nick Woltemade scored four times in his first five Premier League matches but has been turned into an attacking midfielder after injury and hasn't scored in the PL since a brace against Chelsea on December 20. Yoane Wissa had a goal and an assist against PSV in the Champions League on January 21 but has two goals in his other 737 minutes for the club and may still be affected by a knee injury that cost him the Fall. Anthony Elanga has looked like a blazing-fast square peg in a round hole out wide.
Malick Thiaw has been spectacular at the back and Aaron Ramsdale's loan looks brilliant now that he's been giving the No. 1 shirt over suddenly-shaky Nick Pope for the moment. The same might be said for Jacob Ramsey, who looks a part of the future now that he's getting regular minutes.
Usually you could ask about whether the boss wanted the transfers but Howe led the way in that regard this summer after director Paul Mitchell left town. He would've known Elanga thrived on the counter, that Woltemade was a playmaking center forward, and that Wissa was 29 and not going to stretch defenses like the departed Alexander Isak. That point could be used as pro-Howe given a club as big as Newcastle should've acted with more urgency on appointing a director.
What about the on-field performances?
So what about this team on the field? In the Premier League, the problems are many.
Newcastle have been outright poor in open play this PL season, out-attempted 290-268, out-scored 30-26, and holding a minus-4.93 xGD. The silver lining is they've been great in producing set pieces and don't concede many, but the eye test say this may be in part down to a lack of ideas in the final third — Newcastle are league-best in crosses and take plenty of shots from 16-30 yards. That's a lot of "deflected out for corner" on the game log.
The Magpies have been so poor with the lead this season. When goal differential is even, they're a +3 GD team. When they are trailing, that figure is +4. When leading? Minus-8.
And Sunday's home loss to their rivals may've further illuminated a fatal flaw of their season: Getting out-adjusted at halftime.
Newcastle are brilliant in the first half-hour of games, scoring 15 goals and conceding just six. Howe puts together good plans! But as on Sunday and against Barca at midweek, when 2-2 in the 28th minute became 2-3 in first-half stoppage and 2-7 by the 72nd minute, Newcastle are very much not a second half.
Newcastle have conceded 29 second-half goals, 16 of which have come in the final quarter-hour. Their plus-4 first-half GD sinks is outdone by a minus-5 second-half GD.
Attack-wise, Newcastle are clearly a top-half if not top-six side with shots, shots on target, and xG. They've delivered off set pieces — and that's a credit to the coaching staff — and have had some bad luck in clattering 17 posts. That trails only Manchester United. Teams have also set up differently versus Newcastle, an athletic team that's been limited to 25 fast breaks this season per Opta. That's 11th in the division. They've also attempted the league's most crosses.
And defensively they've been both strong and truly unlucky. The Magpies entered Sunday with the Premier League's fifth-best xG total (37.46) while conceding 5.54 more goals more than expected. They give up a low xG/shot (0.11) and dominate the air (53.6% on aerial duels, fourth in the PL).
What should Newcastle do with Eddie Howe?
This really should come down to a big-picture evaluation, and that big picture includes the final seven matches of this season.
If Howe can get the Magpies back to Europe, something very possible with Sandro Tonali due to return and Bruno Guimaraes hopefully on his heels, then perhaps this season can be read as:
- Transfer mistakes without a director
- Eliminated from both domestic cups by a mismatch in Man City
- Advanced in Champions League and hung with Barca despite Guimaraes, Tonali injuries
- Back in Europe, will try to win next year.
But if the Magpies don't wind up with European money, they will need to reload and likely replace some big stars. They could, in theory, say thank you to Howe and get a new face embedded for the summer. Oliver Glasner, Marco Silva, and Mauricio Pochettino are among big names who might relish a big budget rebuild.
So let's see how these final few weeks go, as Howe has a couple of weeks to show he's got a handle on his talent.