What Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez have shown so far
· Yahoo Sports
The San Diego Padres signed a starter in the offseason that they knew would not be ready for at least a month to two months in Griffin Canning. With Spring Training well underway, they discovered that their rehabbing workhorse, Joe Musgrove, was not recovering well from his buildup and he was put on hold. Matt Waldron, who worked hard during the offseason to lose weight, increase strength and improve his velocity, suffered an infection of a hemorrhoid and needed surgery.
That left two reclamation projects, Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez, as the last two pitchers to fill out the rotation. Both left-handers JP Sears and Marco Gonzales, as well as righty Triston McKenzie, showed early that they didn’t have the needed command to break camp with the team.
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At least Buehler and Márquez are experienced veterans who know how to pitch. Even with diminished stuff after elbow surgeries, they both showed the ability in spring games to develop into acceptable fill-ins for a while.
So, after two starts each, what have we learned about Buehler and Márquez?
Walker BuehlerIn 6.2 innings pitched over two starts, Buehler has had two good innings to start each game. Then everything falls apart and he can’t get it back. In the first two innings of the two starts, Buehler has allowed two hits, no runs, one walk and has had six strikeouts. Over the next 2.2 innings pitched in the third and fourth innings of the two games, Buehler has allowed six hits, seven runs, three walks and has had one strikeout. He has a seven-pitch mix with a fastball that tops out at 93-94 mph. His command and execution are the issues, and it seems that he had to change his arm angle and mechanics to accommodate his injured elbow. Now that he is healed, going back to a previous arm angle has been a problem.
In his Padres Daily newsletter, San Diego Union-Tribune Padres beat writer Kevin Acee quoted Buehler on his struggles.
“By nature of doing new stuff for three or four days, I can hold it for a (while) and then it goes away. It’s just getting the new stuff into the throw…. I feel good about the first two innings. So net positive, I guess.”
All that is well and good if we were still in spring games. But these games count and a starter that can hold his delivery for only two innings is not a starter. That would be a bullpen pitcher, at best. The bottom line appears to be whether Buehler can bring his new mechanics into the games more consistently and soon enough so as not to cost the Friars too many games. Taxing the bullpen for five or six innings every fifth day is not a winning approach.
There will be an end line for this experiment. Matt Waldron is almost done with his rehab and Griffin Canning has begun his starter progression. Buehler’s 9.45 ERA is representative of how poorly he pitches after reverting back to old habits in his delivery. The Padres can’t afford to let that continue for too long.
Germán MárquezIn eight innings pitched over two starts, Márquez had one horrible performance and one really gutsy one. In his first start, he lasted three innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and a walk. His locations on his pitches were missing and he was hit hard.
Then, in a Padres notebook by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Ruben Niebla revealed that Márquez was tipping his pitches and the hitters took advantage. They worked on his delivery in his between starts bullpen session. Márquez pitched through five shutout innings while scattering six hits with one walk and four strikeouts Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He benefitted from some good defense as well as some Pirates mistakes in the Padres win.
Márquez lives and dies by his knuckle curve. He used it 45% of the time versus the Pirates and his 94 mph four-seamer 47% of the time. He threw five sinkers and one changeup in his 92 pitches. The curve had a 38% whiff rate and the fastball a 25% whiff rate. His curve is the only pitch that rates out as a plus-pitch.
Márquez has to be almost perfect with his curve and fastball to be successful pitching this way. Mixing in other pitches would presumably make him less predictable but if he can locate the knuckle curve and it moves like it did on Monday, maybe a fifth starter job can work for him.
The conclusion for both of these veteran starters is that they have to hold onto their altered delivery and mechanics if they have any hope of sticking as MLB starting pitchers. Both are former ace pitchers who have lost velocity after elbow surgery and must now rely on command in order to be effective. It seems that both have the potential to succeed but time will tell if the adjustments they have made can carry them through to an effective second career as a finesse pitcher.
The Padres, luckily, have other options on the horizon if either or both of these pitchers are unable to adjust to their new realities. For the sake of the team, we can hope that at least one of them is able to succeed.