Polls close in federal byelections as Liberal majority hangs in balance
· Toronto Sun
The Mark Carney Liberals will soon know if they have majority control in the House of Commons — and if so, by how much.
Federal byelections are being held Monday in the Toronto-area ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale, as well as in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, which covers an area north of the Island of Montreal.
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Polls close at 8:30 p.m. with results expected to start rolling in shortly afterward — with the possible exception of Terrebonne , which is being targeted by the Longest Ballot protest group.
If the Liberals win one of those seats, they will seize majority control in the House of Commons. Claim all three and passing bills will become even easier without the need for Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia to break ties.
Floor-crossing debate rages on
The Liberals’ push for a majority government has ramped up after four Conservatives, as well as former NDP MP Lori Idlout, crossed the floor to join them in recent months. Sarnia-area MP Marilyn Gladu was the latest to defect from the Tories to the Grits last week, giving them 171 seats in the House of Common.
The Liberals just need 172 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons to pass bills without help from opposition parties, although they need more than that to avoid attempts to slow their legislative agenda.
The floor-crossings have led to repeated accusations of “backroom deals” being made with opposition MPs and they surfaced again Monday when Conservative MP Billy Morin told The Canadian Press that the Liberals were trying to “poach” him.
Liberal MP Wayne Long denied those accusations in comments to CP and said he was not “aware” of more Conservatives potentially crossing the floor.
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Toronto ridings considered safe Liberals seats
The Toronto-area ridings, meanwhile, are considered safe Liberals seats and are up for grabs after two high-profile former cabinet ministers gave up their spots in the House of Commons earlier this year to take on new roles overseas.
Former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland called it quits in University—Rosedale on Jan. 9 after accepting an advisory role in Ukraine, where she will help guide President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on economic development issues.
The one-time finance minister is also set to become head of the Rhodes Trust in Oxford, England, this summer after representing the riding since 2015.
Scarborough Southwest will also elect a new MP for the first time since 2015, when former Toronto Police chief Bill Blair began his 11-year run representing the riding before stepping down less than a month after Freeland to become Canada’s next high commissioner to the U.K.
Big battle expected in Terrebonne
The biggest battle, however, is expected to be in Terrebonne, which the Liberals won by a single vote during the 2025 general election before the results were tossed by the Supreme Court of Canada over mail-in ballot issues.
The riding had about a 20% voter turnout in advance polling, according to CP, and the Liberals flooded the riding with staffers and Quebec ministers — as well as Carney — to promote candidate Tatiana Auguste.
Bloc Quebecois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne is also running again after representing the riding from 2021-25.