The Iran conflict has become the new Cold War
· Axios
The Iran conflict has entered a Cold War-like phase of financial sanctions, gunboat interdictions and talks about having talks.
Why it matters: The tense stalemate has no immediate end in sight. So higher energy prices appear certain for months — and a hot war could break out at any moment.
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The big picture: Several U.S. officials told Axios they're concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal.
- In this scenario, the U.S. would have to keep its forces in the region for many more months. The Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, the U.S. blockade would remain, and both sides would continue waiting for the other to blink or fire first.
- With the November midterm elections now six months away, "a frozen conflict is the worst thing for Trump politically and economically," one source close to the president said.
Zoom in: President Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes or waiting to see whether his "maximum pressure" financial sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, according to five advisers who have spoken with him.
- "All [Iran's leaders] understand is bombs," Trump recently told one adviser, who relayed the comment to Axios.
- "I would describe him as frustrated but realistic," the adviser said. "He doesn't want to use force. But he's not backing down."
Inside the room: Some of Trump's senior advisers want him to maintain the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for now — and impose more economic sanctions to pressure the Iranian regime — before going back to bombing.
- "The level of sanctions on Iran are extraordinary, the pressure on Iran is extraordinary, and I think more can be brought to bear," Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who's also Trump's national security adviser, said in an interview with Fox News that aired Monday.
- "I hope the rest of the world will join us in the crippling sanctions and other things that we are doing to pressure that regime into making concessions it does not want to make," Rubio said.
The other side: Trump also is consulting with hawks outside the administration, including Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). All are advising Trump to take some kind of military action to try to break the current deadlock.
- "Mr. President, stick to your guns for the good of the nation and the world. The Iranian regime and their behavior is the problem, not you," Graham posted Monday on X, calling on Trump to reject Iran's latest proposal.
State of play: Trump discussed the Iranian proposal with his national security team Monday. Iran offered to negotiate a side deal to open the Strait of Hormuz in return for the U.S. dropping its blockade of ships coming and going from Iran.
- A U.S. official and two other sources briefed on the meeting said no decisions were made. One source said Trump didn't seem to be inclined to accept Iran's proposal because it would postpone talks over that nation's nuclear program — the elimination of which has been Trump's chief reason for attacking Iran.
- "The president's red lines with respect to Iran have been made very, very clear, not just to the American public, but also to them as well," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday.
Zoom out: Trump imposed the blockade after Iran closed the strait and began charging tolls to tankers shipping oil out of the Persian Gulf, which accounts for about 20% of global crude supplies.
- The U.S. military is forcing Iranian-flagged vessels carrying the country's oil to return to shore, but some have slipped through.
- The U.S. also has seized other tankers carrying Iranian crude and alleged "contraband" it says Iran could use for war.
- Trump has said he won't lift the blockade before Iran agrees to a deal that addresses concerns about its nuclear program.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has ramped up the maximum pressure sanctions campaign targeting financial institutions, shipping companies and even "teapot" refiners in China that process sanctioned Iranian oil.
- "This is maximum pressure everywhere and from all angles," a senior administration official said. "That could mean military action, too. It might not. It's up to the president."
- Trump administration officials and allies believe the sanctions could make it impossible for Iran to store more oil, requiring the country to shut down its wells — causing major economic damage. But analysts critical of the war say it won't work to wring concessions from Iran.