Fuel price update: Here’s how much petrol and diesel could fall in July
· The South African
South Africa’s motorists could finally receive some welcome relief at the pumps in July, with mid-month fuel price data pointing to significant decreases for both petrol and diesel despite the return of the final phase of government’s temporary fuel levy relief.
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According to the latest projections from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), fuel prices are currently showing substantial over-recoveries, raising hopes of lower fuel costs after four consecutive months of increases.
As of 15 June, the CEF’s daily fuel price outlook indicated over-recoveries of:
- Petrol 93: R2.68 per litre
- Petrol 95: R2.65 per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: R4.33 per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: R4.67 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: R4.92 per litre
An over-recovery occurs when prevailing market conditions support a lower fuel price than the one currently being charged, creating scope for a reduction in the following month’s fuel price adjustment.
Relief after months of increases
The encouraging outlook follows several months of rising fuel prices that have added pressure to household budgets and business operating costs.
Higher fuel costs have filtered through the economy by increasing transport and logistics expenses, contributing to broader inflationary pressures and pushing up the price of goods and services.
Should current trends continue through the remainder of June, motorists could receive their first meaningful fuel price relief in months.
Oil prices and rand working in motorists’ favour
The current over-recoveries have been driven primarily by softer international oil prices and a relatively stable rand exchange rate.
Global oil markets have eased since late May amid improving sentiment surrounding geopolitical developments and hopes of a longer-term easing of tensions involving the United States and Iran.
Meanwhile, the rand has strengthened modestly against the US dollar, reducing the cost of importing refined fuel products.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) reported that the average exchange rate improved from R16.65/$ to R16.52/$ between the previous and current pricing periods.
The department also noted that international diesel and illuminating paraffin prices declined significantly due to lower seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere, further boosting over-recoveries.
Final fuel levy increase still due
Despite the positive outlook, motorists will still need to absorb the final phase of government’s withdrawal of temporary fuel levy relief.
In June, National Treasury reinstated R1.50 per litre to petrol prices and R1.96 per litre to diesel prices. A second and final increase of the same magnitude is scheduled for July.
This means:
- Petrol: Additional R1.50 per litre
- Diesel: Additional R1.96 per litre
Even after accounting for these increases, current over-recoveries remain large enough to suggest the possibility of notable fuel price reductions next month.
Higher slate levy remains in place
Motorists are also paying a higher slate levy after it was increased from 122.70 cents per litre to 157.74 cents per litre in June.
The increase was introduced to recover a cumulative industry under-recovery balance of R18.28 billion.
The slate levy forms part of South Africa’s fuel pricing mechanism and is used to balance differences between actual fuel costs and regulated fuel prices.
Outlook remains uncertain
While the current projections are encouraging, analysts caution that the final July fuel price adjustments cannot yet be predicted with certainty.
International oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate remain the two most influential factors in determining fuel prices and can change significantly before month-end.
Any sharp rise in crude oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions or a weakening rand could reduce the current over-recoveries and alter the final outcome.
For now, however, the latest CEF data provides a rare dose of optimism for South African motorists, with meaningful fuel price relief appearing increasingly likely after months of sustained increases at the pumps.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for July 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93decrease of 268 centsPetrol 95decrease of 265 centsDiesel 0.05%decrease of 433 centsDiesel 0.005%decrease of 467 centsIlluminating Paraffindecrease of 492 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 268 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of 265 cents as well for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 433 and 467 cents per litre decrease.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 492 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $82.92 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.20/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 30 June.