NFL offseason power rankings: No. 18 Washington Commanders and Jayden Daniels try to recapture 2024 feeling

· Yahoo Sports

Less than two years ago, the Washington Commanders were in the NFC championship game.

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They were overwhelmed in that game by a very good Philadelphia Eagles team, but it didn't seem like the sudden end to a very short success story. Maybe repeating an enchanted season was unrealistic in 2025, but the future seemed bright due to quarterback Jayden Daniels.

The loss stung, though. It was a 55-23 blowout. The Commanders wilted, turning the ball over four times. It wasn't what the Commanders were hoping for after a stunning road win over the Detroit Lions in the divisional round.

"That's probably going to haunt me for a while," Daniels said.

It's even harder to shake now, because last season's Commanders never had any moments that replicated their 2024 success and seem far away from that plateau heading into this season.

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The Commanders were a top regression candidate last season. In a magical 2024 season they had nine wins in one-score games with an inordinate amount of last-minute and overtime wins. They converted 87% of their fourth downs, which was the highest rate in modern NFL history, and benefitted from a soft schedule. And Daniels stayed healthy all season after concerns about his durability were part of his draft profile.

Last season, Washington lost its first five one-score games before finally winning one in Week 18 against a resting Eagles team. Their fourth-down conversion rate dropped to a good but not historic 61.5%. Washington beat only one playoff team (Chargers) if we don't count that Eagles win at the end. Daniels missed 10 games with knee, hamstring and elbow injuries.

Everything that went right in Daniels' rookie season went wrong a year later. That happens, but this was an extreme case. The Commanders fell from 12-5 to 5-12.

Washington started 2-1 but the wins came against the Giants and Raiders, who were vying for the No. 1 pick of the draft late in the season. A Week 2 Thursday night blowout loss to the Packers probably said less about Green Bay's dominance and more about where the Commanders were headed. They lost nine of 10 after that, including a couple of overtime games.

Can QB Jayden Daniels recapture the magic he displayed as a rookie?ASSOCIATED PRESS

The low point of the season came in a 38-14 blowout loss at home to the Seahawks, when head coach Dan Quinn regrettably had Daniels still playing in an uncompetitive game and Daniels dislocated his elbow being tackled on a run. Daniels played just one more time, and left that game against the Vikings when he re-injured his elbow. It was that type of season.

It also exposed how many flaws Daniels covered up during his historic rookie season. Washington's defense bottomed out, finishing 28th in DVOA and 31st in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play. The offense wasn't very good, without a single player reaching more than 805 yards rushing or receiving. Even Daniels was far off his rookie year numbers when he was on the field.

The Commanders figured their best path forward was to fix their defense. Washington signed 20 free agents to a total of $238.9 million, according to Spotrac, which was the third-most in the NFL this offseason. Most of that fortune went to the defensive side.

Pass rusher Odafe Oweh got the biggest deal, at $96 million over four years, and he's joined by linebacker Leo Chenal, defensive lineman Tim Settle, cornerback Amik Robertson, safety Nick Cross and edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson. All of them got at least $11 million as did the one big offensive signing, tight end Chig Okonkwo. The Commanders had one top 70 draft pick and used it on linebacker Sonny Styles at No. 7 overall.

It's fair to wonder if the Commanders have done enough to support Daniels. There weren't significant additions at running back, offensive line or wide receiver. But a better defense will take pressure off Daniels.

Even when the 2024 season was unfolding, the realistic view was that the Commanders were still in the early stages of building a contender. Their unlikely success might have changed their mindset. They made moves to improve right away, which is a reason their roster was the oldest in the NFL last season. The aggression of this offseason indicates the Commanders believe they can turn things back around quickly.

If that doesn't work, that near miss of two seasons ago will sting even more.

The Commanders were big spenders in free agency. That doesn't always work out, but their defense is unquestionably better.

Odafe Oweh was the key signing, and there's risk with a $96 million deal to a player who was on the field for less than 50% of the snaps between the Ravens and Chargers last season, and whom the Ravens gave up on midseason by taking a low-cost trade with the Chargers. Oweh posted 7.5 sacks with the Chargers, and had 15 the previous two seasons with the Ravens. Pass rushers are hard to come by, and the Commanders had to pay big to win the bidding war.

Overall, the Commanders signed or drafted seven players who are expected to be new starters on their defense, including linebacker Sonny Styles. He is a great fit for Washington, an exciting athlete who was a key piece of a fantastic Ohio State defense. The Commanders had offensive holes when they went on the clock with the seventh pick, but it's hard to fault them for taking Styles.

The Commanders went all-in on fixing the defense, with tight end Chig Okonkwo, running back Rachaad White and third-round rookie receiver Antonio Williams as the main additions on offense. Perhaps there's more help for Jayden Daniels to come, but it's hard to rely on anyone added this late in the offseason to make a big difference. But the Commanders knew they had to fix the defense, and at least they attacked that problem.

Grade: B

Jayden Daniels' relatively slight frame and running style, in which he rarely avoided hits, was a talking point before the 2024 NFL Draft. It wasn't a problem as a rookie, but durability is a concern after he started just seven games last season due to injuries, finishing only four.

While Daniels' incredible rookie season was no fluke, the drop in efficiency in his second season was also notable. He had a nearly 30-yard drop in passing yards per game from 209.9 to 180.3, his passer rating went from 100.1 to 88.1 and his rushing yards fell from 52.4 to 39.7. Injuries were a factor in the slump, but Daniels wasn't the same player. It's hard to imagine Daniels completely falling off given how good he was as a rookie, but it also felt like C.J. Stroud was a can't-miss star after his great rookie season.

David Blough replaces Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator after head coach Dan Quinn made several staff changes. We'll see more of Daniels under center, after he has mostly been out of the shotgun for his first two NFL seasons and through his college career. That should open up the play-action passing game. The Commanders didn't make major offensive personnel changes but hope a new scheme and better health gets Daniels back on track.

From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "The second-year breakout didn't happen for QB Jayden Daniels, both due to his play and injuries, but it was always going to be difficult to top his rookie season. Washington struggled to a 5-12 record. This season, the Commanders are favorites in just five games and have to face the tough NFC West.

"No. 7 overall pick Sonny Styles should help a defense rebuilt through free agency (Leo Chenal, Odafe Oweh, etc.), but there are still plenty of questions on both sides of the ball. The eighth-toughest schedule by opposing season win totals won't help matters, so Washington surpassing its win total of 7.5 could be difficult. The Commanders are helped by a rest advantage of +9 days (tied for fourth best)."

From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Jayden Daniels is currently the QB5 in Yahoo drafts, a nod to his explosive rookie year. But are we supposed to pretend last season never happened? Daniels was merely QB18 in points per game last season, and most of his indexed efficiency stats were below league code (only his interception rate beat the league average). Daniels is too talented not to improve over last year's injury-wrecked disappointment, but the Washington receiver room looks thin after veteran Terry McLaurin. I can't view Daniels as a proactive pick, especially given the depth of the QB pool this year."

Other than the Commanders' defensive issues and Jayden Daniels' number of missed games due to injury, no stat put Washington's season in better perspective than receiver Terry McLaurin going from 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2024 to 582 yards and three touchdowns last season. McLaurin had a contract extension that dragged on too long, to late August. That type of holdout often throws a player's season off, and McLaurin never seemed like himself. He didn't have a 100-yard game and missed seven games due to a quad injury, which explains most of the dip in his stats. It exposed that the Commanders were very thin at the skill positions other than McLaurin.

Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt had a good rookie season for a seventh-round draft pick, with 805 rushing yards, but he contributes little in the passing game. Deebo Samuel didn't pay off as Washington hoped, with 727 yards and five touchdowns. Zach Ertz had a modest 504 yards before a season-ending knee injury. Nobody other than Samuel, McLaurin and Ertz had more than 225 receiving yards. Ertz and Samuel were both unsigned free agents heading into the summer.

Perhaps Croskey-Merritt builds on a solid rookie season, Chig Okonkwo puts it all together after some promising moments with the Titans and a secondary receiver like Treylon Burks or rookie Antonio Williams has a breakout. Realistically, the Commanders' offense desperately needs a big year out of McLaurin, who will turn 31 in September.

When a coach changes both coordinators, there's usually only one more move to make if things don't turn around. After last season, the Commanders fired defensive coordinator Joe Whitt and mutually parted ways with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

Whitt took the fall for a bad defensive season and there were differences in philosophy between Quinn and Kingsbury. Quinn wanted to run the ball more and also have a more NFL-style offense for Daniels' development, according to Grant Paulsen of 106.7 The Fan in Washington. New offensive coordinator David Blough will rely more on his quarterback lining up under center and the play-action passing game.

Defensively, Daronte Jones is the new coordinator after serving as defensive backs coach under Brian Flores with the Vikings. Quinn said Jones will call the defense, meaning that both coordinators will be calling plays for the first time in the NFL. That's a risk for Quinn, who will be on the hot seat if the Commanders don't contend for a playoff berth again.

The first and third picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, led their teams to division titles last season. Maye helped the Patriots make a Super Bowl and finished second in MVP voting. Daniels was far better than both of them as rookies, and better than arguably any other rookie quarterback in NFL history. Last season was rough, but plenty of that can be blamed on injuries. If Daniels stays healthy and plays at his elite level from two seasons ago, we already know the Commanders' potential.

Making another NFC championship game this season is probably too much to ask, but a Daniels rebound combined with a brand new defense could result in a playoff berth and perhaps even contention for an NFC East title. When you have a superstar at quarterback it makes everything easier, and Daniels was unquestionably at that level two seasons ago.

It's strange to be wondering what's next for Jayden Daniels. He was incredible in college and had what was likely the greatest rookie season ever for a quarterback. Yet, after last season, there are questions, most notably about his durability. C.J. Stroud had a phenomenal rookie season for the Texans but enters Year 4 with concerns over whether he's really Houston's quarterback of the future. If Daniels goes down that path, it will be horrific for a Commanders franchise that thought it had its next star and also lived through a similar story with Robert Griffin III.

The Commanders added a lot to their defense, but spending sprees like that don't always work out. The offense is practically the same lukewarm cast it was last season, which has also been an issue with Stroud's development in Houston. Another double-digit loss season would make that NFC championship game seem like a fever dream, and probably would cost head coach Dan Quinn his job.

The Commanders are a hard team to predict because the entire perception about them has changed in a year. Last offseason, Jayden Daniels was the next big thing, Dan Quinn was a perfect fit as head coach and the team's rapid ascension seemed real even if some regression was to be expected.

Everything is in flux coming into this season. The Commanders can't help but be better on defense after numerous additions, but they might not come close to a top-10 unit and there are clear holes in the offense around Daniels. Add in questions about Daniels' ability to stay healthy and it gets even murkier. The Commanders won 12 games two seasons ago and five last season, and settling about in the middle of that seems right.

The Commanders will finish about .500, and then can spend next offseason focusing on the offense. This was always a multiyear rebuilding project, and the Commanders can get back to that timetable after rebounding a bit this season.

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