‘This Feels Like a Long Con’ — Bill Simmons Doubles Down on ‘Bet’ on LeBron James’ Next Team, Pending 1 Final Hurdle
· Yahoo Sports
As the LeBron James sweepstakes trudge forward, with five teams reportedly still in the running for the 22-time NBA All-Star’s services, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons remains adamant that James’ next destination is already a foregone conclusion.
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On Sunday, the veteran pundit outlined why he “hasn’t wavered” in predicting James will return home to Cleveland for his third stint with the Cavaliers despite another suitor’s growing odds.
Bill Simmons Anticipates LeBron James-Cavaliers Reunion Amid Heat Buzz
The Miami Heat gained steam in the race to sign James last week upon team president Pat Riley and newly acquired superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo making their pitches to the four-time MVP.
The increasing likelihood of a James-Heat reunion has been reflected in the betting market, with Miami joining Cleveland in gaining separation from the rest of the pack.
Still, Simmons isn’t buying the hype.
“I haven’t wavered, I think it’s gonna be Cleveland,” Simmons said on Sunday’s edition of “The Bill Simmons Podcast” after previously speculating that the move was already a “done” deal.
“It was interesting, the Kalshi market and the Polymarket, the prediction ones, all spiked that it was gonna be Miami, and it got up to like 55%. … This feels like a long con. I would still bet on Cleveland. I think that’s gonna happen.”
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The analyst added that James and the Cavaliers are likely just sorting out contract logistics at this stage before finalizing his league-altering announcement.
“I just think they’re trying to figure out how to actually get him on the team where they don’t have to just pay him the minimum ’cause you have to trade somebody,” Simmons continued.
While the Cavaliers are coming off a 52-win season and Eastern Conference finals run, skepticism abounds over whether adding James would be enough to put them over the top.
The 41-year-old forward would presumably slot into a seasoned starting lineup featuring star guards James Harden and Donovan Mitchell and frontcourt standouts Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
James could embrace a complementary scoring role behind Mitchell and provide the kind of offensive versatility Cleveland was lacking on the wing throughout the 2025-26 campaign. That said, James is no longer the high-impact defender he once was, while the Cavaliers’ backcourt remains defensively challenged, which could make containing top-tier opposing guards and wings a daunting task.
As such, many have pegged more well-rounded suitors like the Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves as better “basketball fits” for James. However, it appears familiarity and nostalgia could be playing a pivotal role in his decision-making process, giving Cleveland and Miami, the franchises with which he won his first three NBA titles, a clear leg up.