Three paths to a perfect trade deadline for the Seattle Mariners
· Yahoo Sports
The 2026 season has not been a fairy tale follow-up to the historic 2025 campaign for the Seattle Mariners. The .500-hugging club has sounded less like a well-oiled machine and more like my favorite Steel-type evolutionary line from the fifth generation of the Pokémon games. But the second half has been where Seattle has turned things on this decade, with winning records every second half since 2021 and better records post-All-Star Break than prior in all but one campaign. To make the playoffs and defend their AL West crown, they’ll need to do so once more, and for that they’ll need to address some of their clear weaknesses ahead of the August 3rd trade deadline. The sooner they make a move, the sooner they can improve, and the Jerry Dipoto/Justin Hollander Mariners have frequently been willing to come out swinging ahead of the final rush.
This summer, Seattle’s solutions are a bit clunky, but their needs are clear. I’ve been told lists are bullet points are an AI thing but like the mighty em dash and superfluous similes, the robots can drag them from my warm, meaty mitts or rust in hell.
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- At least one potent righty bat. Seattle’s been one of the worst teams in the league against left-handed pitching, and while it’s unsurprising given the lefty-dominated nature of their roster since day one, it’s been exacerbated by absences and/or ineffectiveness from Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and Victor Robles, as well as craterous performance from Rob Refsnyder and Leo Rivas who were hoped to have some stabilizing skill against southpaws.
- Long and/or impact relief. Seattle has been running a combination of the piggyback and a six-man rotation for most of the year, flexing the luxury of their stellar rotation depth but forcing difficult and narrow usage of their bullpen. Injuries to Matt Brash and Cooper Criswell, along with a lack of emergence from any of The Pile to this point, have left the M’s pen bifurcated. This split is between an “A” pen of Andrés Muñoz, Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier, and Jose A. Ferrer, and a “C or D+” pen of Nick Davila, Cole Wilcox, and Michael Rucker at present, which has also featured Alex Hoppe and now-departed Casey Legumina, among others. It’s left Seattle close to punting several close games when they’ve trailed due to not wishing to exhaust their top arms, but with only seven options to use, they’re putting out unproven arms whose performance is more mop-up than lockdown.
- Ace. Yes, Seattle currently has “too many” starters. No, they’re not of a caliber easily upgraded on. But this M’s roster’s weakest positions thus far are catcher, first base, and the left side of the infield writ large. At all four positions, Seattle has players under contract extensions, the least lengthy of which obviously being J.P. Crawford. Any major righty bat acquired will either fill a corner outfield or third base role, but despite his recent struggles and possible injury, Crawford has looked and graded out at least fine at the hot corner to be lower-priority in terms of replacement seeking. In terms of what is available on the market, the possibility of consolidating the M’s rotation into a stronger five is a real pathway forward, even if every permutation is painful.
There is some overlap in each deal, which are designed to be possible individually as centerpiece moves. However, with some tweaking, multiple deals could be done as one. As a reminder, these are projected fits, based on my evaluation of an appropriate deal. All of the players targeted have been listed due to fit and public reporting that they are at minimum available in trades per industry sourcing.
1. The Giant fit
Seattle Mariners acquire OF Heliot Ramos& RHP Jason Foley
San Francisco Giants acquire OF Jonny Farmelo& RHP Christian Little
Circle pegs for circular holes. Seattle’s easiest solution to their issues against lefties is acquiring someone who has hit them excellently his whole career. Their easiest pathway to improving their bullpen depth is adding a decent, low-cost reliever capable of leverage work. Easy, meet peasy.
The selling point on Ramos is that he fits the mold of position players Seattle has targeted at deadlines past. Rarely willing to go for a true “rental” beyond depth bullpen arms (which Brubaker would be) in this second window of Dipoto-era contention, Ramos would join Seattle in his final year of pre-arbitration. In 1547 plate appearances, mostly consolidated over the past three years, the 26 year old has a .258/.316/.425 line, good for a 107 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR in 376 games as of Friday, July 24. Drafted 19th overall in 2017 out of Leadership Christian HS in Puerto Rico, Ramos spent several years creeping up prospect lists and was seen as a likely impact bat with some defensive limitations that would push him to a corner outfield role sooner rather than later. Despite debuting in 2022, poor performance and oblique injuries dimmed his star by age 23, but he put up a strong age 24 campaign in 2024. 2025 and 2026 have been a bit behind that pace, but he’s hit and performed ably this year at a 107 wRC+ and career-best barrel rates and expected batting average, weighted on-base, and slugging. His BABIP has been high for an average runner, but when your hard hit rate is over 50% you are not purely getting lucky.
Crucially, Ramos crushes lefties. He’s crushed them his whole career, and he’s crushing them this year. Around league-average vs. RHP, in 433 plate appearances vs. LHP at the big league level, he’s gone .282/.346/.510 with a 135 wRC+ and an 8.3% walk rate against 25.6% strikeouts. He’s been a tick better at 144 wRC+ this year. He’s the only right-handed hitter to ever hit a splash down ball into McCovey Bay in San Francisco, and has room still to improve on his plus power.
View LinkRamos has managed to slug reasonably despite playing in Oracle Park, a locale notoriously hard to homer in that is actually more challenging for sluggers than T-Mobile Park. While the park does give greater opportunity for gap triples, Ramos is more of a glide double or big fly kind of guy. That does make Ramos a shade more all-or-nothing, as he’s run career-high strikeout rates and low walk rates. However, as a defensive fit, Ramos is at least a neutral move compared to Luke Raley and/or Randy Arozarena in an outfield corner, with a strong arm that should fit in the relatively tame dimensions of T-Mobile Park.
It’s with an eye to those players that this move also makes sense, with Ramos potentially slotting in to fill the space in the next three years as Seattle likely will be looking to replace the departing Randy Arozarena. Whether Ramos would be a full-time player as he’s been the past three years or a sort of 0.8 FTE type in pairing with Raley, Dominic Canzone, and Brendan Donovan over the next couple years, there is a hand-in-glove sort of fit with a player as talented and consistently decent, while still so young.
Foley receives fewer words, but solves a need. He’s a career reliever who grew into a high-leverage role with the Tigers before injuries wiped him out for all of 2025. Dealt this winter in a package to the Giants, he was expected to miss Opening Day but has only gotten into two games thus far, one against Seattle. He’s a sinker-heavy righty with a groundball profile that helps him be hyper-efficient, and he was deployed as both a closer and a fireman in his time with Detroit. In his first year of arbitration, Foley is earning $2 million, but won’t likely see that sum rise significantly next year due to the time he’s missed the past two years, making him an undisruptive add for the M’s financially as well.
The prospect cost is recognizable. I prefer keeping Michael Arroyo to Farmelo, the former of whom Seattle is hoping prospers as a player not unlike Ramos himself. That might mean he’s a more sensible player to deal away, with Farmelo still projecting like a plus center fielder, but I also prefer Arroyo’s bat and skillset overall. Farmelo was recently promoted to Double-A, and fits the Giants’ need for a rangy outfielder who can handle their massive confines, something Arroyo decidedly has not shown an acuity for. He’s also been more swing-and-miss prone than any of Seattle’s top prospects save for Lazaro Montes, at a lower level. And yet, he is performing well at just age 21, having lost significant reps to a brutal ACL injury that seems physically well in his past. He has a case to be the likeliest position player star in Seattle’s system currently. Little is a slower burn righty, whose managed to miss bats in multi-inning work with High-A Everett in his age 22 season. Highly touted as a prep, he’s gone from Vanderbilt to LSU to the pros, finding his best outcomes in the bullpen. While this return might disappoint one hopeful Giants fan, I do think it stings enough to be in the right range while still being sensible given Ramos will see his salary grow in the next three years.
Conclusion: Do it. The Mariners should make this move for their immediate and mid-term future. The Giants are profoundly in need of the exact talent ceiling and positional fit that Farmelo affords. Seattle gets a player both younger and with a longer track record of hitting than Casey Schmitt, who has also been suggested as a target, at the cost of some defensive versatility.
Alternatively… OF Luis Robert Jr. of the Mets is a more expensive, less healthy option Seattle could target, whose salary and inconsistency would make him less prospect-intensive to acquire. He’s similarly scorched southpaws all career long. Unlike Ramos, he’s on an expiring deal, making him more equivalent to the Yonder Alonso deal of 2017. Unlike Byron Buxton, who has a similar skillset and injury bug but is vastly more consistent as a performer, Robert is sure to be available. Unlike Seiya Suzuki, it’s easier to make the move fit with a non-contender than a contender.
2. Lock Down the Pen
Seattle Mariners acquire LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Jeremiah Estrada, & OF Ramón Laureano
San Diego Padres acquire RHP Emerson Hancock, 2B/OF Ryan Bliss, & OF Carlos Jimenez
If you want to solidify Seattle’s bullpen, the NL West has ample options to satisfy. I put together similar deals with the Colorado Rockies (centered on RHP Antonio Senzatela and RHP Victor Vodnik or RHP Jimmy Herget, which would likely require a bit less in return) and Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Kevin Ginkel and RHP Ryan Thompson, even cheaper but firmly upgrading the depth of the pen). But for impact, San Diego has the goods, and the clubs are in conversations already. I don’t believe Seattle will target Mason Miller or Louis Varland, the two most impactful relievers on seller teams. It’s not been their MO in years past to extend major resources for the most volatile type of player, and until this year they’ve managed to whip up at least one solid arm internally annually.
But Morejon and Estrada are in a second tier, leverage arms who can and have been deployed flexibly with years of strong performance to point to in their resumés. Morejon is simply one of the five or 10 best relievers in baseball over the past three years, ranking fourth in fWAR since the start of 2024 with 5.2, trailing only Cade Smith of Cleveland (7.2), Miller (7.0), and Jhoan Duran of the Twins and Phillies (5.2).
View LinkThe 27 year old Cuban has managed 191.1 innings of relief in that time, also fourth-most, while appearing in the sixth-most games (182). An expiring free agent, pitching early and often is nothing new for Morejon, who debuted in the Cuban National Series (the nation’s top domestic league) at the age of 15 and in MLB at just 20 years of age. He’s sat in the upper-90s his entire career, and since transitioning to a bullpen role in 2022 has largely locked down late innings for San Diego. Set for free agency this winter, Morejon is a tricky candidate for a qualifying offer, as his early-career injuries and inconsistency kept his arbitration salaries low but his youth and track record should yield a decent return. San Diego is likely to get better value in trading him than what might be a huge spike in payroll they’re not keen to risk given the lofty salaries already on the books.
That latter point is the purpose of Laureano’s inclusion, although the fiery veteran could feature in a late season platoon role if he’s able to return healthy from the hip labrum surgery he had in June to address nagging discomfort he’s been facing for years. More likely, he’ll simply continue his rehabilitation by turning right instead of left when he arrives at the complex in Peoria. What this does allow of interest to San Diego beyond merely shaving $6.5 million (prorated) from their salary is to scoot much closer to being under the luxury tax threshold.
For 2026, MLB has set the tax threshold at $244 million for clubs. San Diego currently is around $10-15 million above that level, and would be exceeding the tax for the second consecutive year, incurring a 30% additional tax on any payroll over that $244 million level. With new ownership and a seeming desire to continue contending while resetting their tax status (and with it some of their additional draft pick and international bonus pool circumstances as well), moving Laureano helps save San Diego more money than he’s owed while also improving their future prospects more directly.
That leaves Estrada, who is nearing the conclusion of rehabbing knee inflammation that sidelined him for a month and a half. The 27 year old is under contract for three years after this one, albeit all arbitration, which will make him a player not as lightly parted with. He’s another flamethrower, though his velocity has been down two ticks this year, perhaps in part connected to his knee issues. What Estrada excels at is getting punchouts, profiling much more as a leverage, shutdown arm than the multi-inning type.
View LinkPersonally, I’ve found Estrada’s style and stuff to be some of my favorite in the majors for years. He throws a four-seamer with excellent ride and a Fernando Rodney-esque splitter and a delivery that looks like he’s uncorking from an Adirondack chair. He can handle hitters of all handedness, and gives Seattle an incredibly imposing pen to lean on night in and night out for multiple years.
The cost is sizable, as it should be, but in keeping with prices at 2025’s deadline which saw controlled relievers like Duran and Varland dealt for well-regarded prospects that were nonetheless not necessarily top-100 names. Ryan Helsley, a strong comparable to Morejon this year, cost an array of lower minors players but none earth-shattering.
Still, this is a big deal purely by number of names exchanged. That’s always worrisome in trade prognostication, but I think it’s a fair fit. San Diego doesn’t want to tank, they want to reload cheaply. Hancock immediately can justify the deal himself if he continues performing as he’s done in this breakout season. He’ll be under contract through 2030 if desired, not hitting arbitration until 2028. The measurable and meaningful improvements in his repertoire are reflected in his results and his peripherals, even with some BABIP fortune. But he’s had 105.1 good innings this year after 165.2 pretty rough ones, and never dominated in the minors up to his pedigree. The deal will take a bit more breadth.
For the Friars, again, this move prioritizes depth and proximity. Bliss is not included as a major piece, he’s simply more useful for San Diego than he is for Seattle, where he could actually play a useful role or be allowed the chance to try. San Diego’s upper minors infield depth is ghastly and old in baseball terms. More important is Jimenez, who fits in an area of cavernous absence in San Diego’s system. Low-to-mid-minors outfielders are few and far between for the Padres, and Jimenez is in the midst of a breakout campaign of his own. The 23 year old Dominican does everything well, albeit nothing extraordinarily, and should be slated for a taste of Double-A Arkansas imminently if not dealt. Blocked from playing center due to Jonny Farmelo’s presence, he can handle all three outfield spots while slashing for impressive power and plate discipline from the left side. I went back and forth on Korbyn Dickerson in this spot, your mileage may vary, largely contingent on how highly you value Hancock.
Conclusion: Yes, with a bit of teeth-gnashing. It is against my strongest instincts to deal starters for relievers, or anything for relievers, really. But it’s what the M’s need, it drains the six-man rotation morass, and deals from areas of relative strength in Seattle’s system. If Dan Wilson has 6-7 excellent arms in the bullpen, it also removes a degree of the grousing as to who is used when. They’ll all be worth using!
Alternatively… Too many to name. Seattle is in a great spot in terms of buying for bullpen help, as they don’t need an ace closer to improve, just to displace the three or so least effective arms with competency. Every non-contending club has at least one or two arms who could be had for a small prospect return. I’ll note that if clearing salary is particularly important to San Diego as I expect it to be, adding in LHP Yuki Matsui would make sense in this deal, and likely allow Seattle to save on prospect cost in some capacity. Matsui is owed $13.5 million over the next two years in addition to the remainder of $5.75 million this year. He’s been able to out-pitch his peripherals as an extreme fly ball arm, but doesn’t make a ton of sense for San Diego as constructed.
3. Twin Aces on a Five Card Draw
Seattle Mariners acquire RHP Joe Ryan, 3B/2B Royce Lewis, &LHP Taylor Rogers
Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Luis Castillo, OF Lazaro Montes*, and cash
If you’ve read this far, you’ve spent a lot of time in the tasteful mundanity of most midseason moves. This is a step further out there. The Twins are “evaluating” their options at this deadline, with Ryan clearly the silver medal option for anyone opting out of the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes. I have seen no clear indication of the M’s going for Skubal, and while Ryan specifically has had no clear smoke, he’s part of a Twins roster that’s been evaluated for numerous fits with Seattle’s needs. I’ve put together a trade above which fits Minnesota’s seeming desire to continue contending in the Buxton era, save money at a premium, and find some impact bats. This deal allows for all three, with some questions.
Ryan is under contract for a little over $6 million this year, and while he has a mutual option for 2027, those are functionally non-existent and never taken, meaning he’ll instead default to his final year of arbitration. He’d be liable to make a sum well into eight figures, still less than he’d get on the open market but not a titanic discount. He’s been much like Castillo in his earlier years: an absolute stalwart with a fastball-heavy repertoire that’s not quite made him a Cy Young contender, but a playoff starter for any team in baseball. Ryan is in the midst of his best season as a pro, with a 3.38/3.42/4.00 ERA/FIP/DRA that’s put him at 2.5 fWAR thus far, on par with George Kirby, Jacob deGrom, and Drew Rasmussen in the 19-22 range by fWAR headed into Friday. He’s a fly ball pitcher who would be better served in Seattle than the bandbox of Target Field in Minnesota, even in summertime.
Ryan’s appeal is the allowance of consolidation of resources. Trading in two good arms for one great one is not always the right move, but for Seattle it is at this moment. While moving Castillo to a less-contending club is a tough move for the veteran, it’s liable to happen in most permutations of a move this year, and Minnesota is neither completely out of it in 2026 nor a longshot to be right in the mix for the AL Central in 2027. That’s the appeal of Castillo, even at a loftier price point, which Seattle might still need to pay down somewhat. While clearing Ryan, Rogers, and Royce allows for some money off the books, Minnesota is not a big spender and may prefer to add in Josh Bell or Victor Caratini to offset some costs.
What Lewis and Rogers add is more a fit for Seattle’s needs than they are for Minnesota’s. The Twins have Lewis off his normal 3B role at present, letting longtime top prospect Brooks Lee get his reps at third. Demoted at one point this year, Lewis is splitting time between the non-shortstop positions defensively, and has been an above-average hitter for his career with still-decent numbers against southpaws this year. Displacing Buddy Kennedy for Lewis is a plus at a minimum, and the former first overall pick can see if a change of scenery lets him find a 2024 Victor Robles-like rejuvenation. Rogers has had a poor season, but the southpaw seems to be a victim of a .351 BABIP more than entirely over the hill if his 5.45 ERA vs. 3.96 FIP have any merit. He’ll also clear another $2 million prorated for Minnesota this year.
*The inclusion of Montes here is conditional. It’s hard to imagine Minnesota eating most of Castillo’s salary. There could be a chance to include a third club like the Cubs who are less penny-pinching, but we’re already out on our skis a ways. Montes fits the bill for Minnesota, with their compact ballpark limiting the impact of his subpar range and allowing his prominent power to play up. The club that boasted the “Bomba Squad” not so long ago has been seeking sluggers like Montes for years, from Trevor Larnach to Alex Kiriloff to Matt Wallner to Max Kepler. I see Montes as a mitigation for Castillo’s salary here, which could also be something Minnesota wishes to move on from before the deadline themselves.
Conclusion: I’m interested, but it’s still a bit tricky. While I strongly support consolidating Seattle’s strengths here into an ace, especially if Detroit continues their resurgence, the prices for Ryan could skyrocket beyond a move like this. I wouldn’t expect a move like this, even though it might make for a real splash.
Alternatively… As a Mariners fan, there is something sinister in trade proposals for the beloved aces of losing franchises. Not every fanbase has something as potent as the relationship between Seattle and Félix Hernández, but I don’t wish the experience on anyone. Moreover, with the Red Sox surging, they too are likely out of the easy fit range for someone like Sonny Gray, and Kevin Gausman apparently is still sore from all the important games he’s lost against the M’s such that they are on his no-trade list. It’s Ryan or run another play.