2026 NFL betting preview: 5 over/under bets to make this season

· Yahoo Sports

When it comes to betting NFL futures, there are seemingly as many handicapping philosophies as there are ways for the New York Jets to lose. Take, for example, the NFL win totals market.

Some bettors like to pounce as soon win totals are released. Some prefer to jump in after the free-agent frenzy dies down. Or after the NFL draft is complete. Or after the schedule is finalized.

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Of course, each approach has plusses and minuses, so there’s no right or wrong option.

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My preference? Practice patience. Although that might mean missing out on the optimum price, the tradeoff is getting to monitor a good chunk of training camp, including significant injuries to key personnel.

After playing the waiting game again this year -- and searching for the best odds -- I’m unleashing my five favorite NFL over/under bets for this season (listed in order of confidence).

Baltimore Ravens under 11.5 wins (-140)

If you believe in the Ravens this season – and oddsmakers clearly do, as Baltimore’s win total is tied with the Rams for highest in the NFL – you believe several related things.

First, that ousted coach John Harbaugh was mostly responsible for last year’s disappointing 8-9 finish (which followed three straight double-digit win campaigns).

And that Harbaugh’s replacement -- longtime assistant Jesse Minter, who has never led a program in two decades in college or the NFL -- is a significant upgrade.

And that Minter (a defensive guru) and new pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson (a four-time Pro Bowler with Cincinnati) can quickly fix a unit that last year ranked 18th in scoring defense, 24th in total defense, 30th in passing defense and tied for 30th in sacks.

And that quarterback Lamar Jackson -- who has played fewer than 13 games in half of his eight NFL seasons and is approaching his 30th birthday -- can stay upright all year and recapture his speed and elusiveness after averaging a career-low 47.8 rushing yards per game in 2026.

And that 32-year-old running back Derrick Henry, who has racked up more than 2,500 rushing yards and 32 rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons in Baltimore, won’t decline and/or break down in his 11th NFL season.

One positive for the 2026 Ravens: a favorable schedule, including eight games against the NFL’s two weakest divisions (AFC South, NFC South).

Still, betting on Baltimore to eclipse its win total for just the third time in the last seven years requires a lot of blind faith -- especially since the franchise has topped 11 victories just twice since 2012.

FLORHAM PARK, NEW JERSEY - AUGUST 11: Geno Smith #7 of the New York Jets hands off to Braelon Allen #0 of the New York Jets during a joint practice between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center on August 11, 2026 in Florham Park, New Jersey. Adam Hunger via Getty Images

There’s a reason I took that pot-shot at the Jets at the top of this article: It’s warranted.

In the past decade, New York has recorded zero winning seasons (and by extension, zero playoff appearances). In fact, after instate NHL sibling the Buffalo Sabres finally made the playoffs this past season, the Jets now own the longest postseason drought in North American team sports.

Here’s a quick breakdown of New York’s on-field futility over the past 10 years: five wins or fewer seven times; three wins or fewer in three of the past six seasons (including last year’s 3-14 record); seven last-place and three third-place finishes in the AFC East; and a 13-47 record in division games.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t hate everything about the Jets. They appear to have had a very strong 2026 draft. And their defense should be improved over last season, when it ranked 25th in yards allowed (355.6 per game) and 31st in points allowed (29.2). 

Also, the pass-catching corps led by stud wideout Garrett Wilson will be a strength … if quarterback Geno Smith can fix the turnover issues that have afflicted him the last two years (32 interceptions in 32 games). 

Should the 35-year-old veteran struggle again and/or not stay healthy, here are New York’s backup options: a rookie (Cade Klubik) and two journeymen (Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe).

Throw in four games against Buffalo and New England -- plus eight more versus the rugged NFC North and AFC West -- and I’m banking on the Jets falling short of their win total for the ninth time in the last 11 seasons.

It’s difficult to defend recommending a positive wager on a franchise coming off consecutive 7-10 seasons. 

Especially when the offense is led by a quarterback who has two postseason victories across 10 NFL seasons. And a defense that was beyond atrocious the past two years, surrendering an NFL-high 979 points in 34 games (28.8 PPG).

Yet I’m taking a shot with that very franchise in 2026, for multiple reasons. First and foremost, I’m cautiously optimistic that Dallas has significantly repaired that busted defense.

Among the key additions up front: veteran pass-rushers Rashan Gary and Von Miller, and ex-49ers linebacker Dee Winters (101 tackles last year). Meanwhile, versatile defensive back Jalen Thompson and first-round rookie Caleb Downs should shore up a secondary that has given up 63 passing TDs the last two years (tied with Cincinnati for most in the NFL).

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - AUGUST 15: Caleb Downs #13 of the Dallas Cowboys looks on during the first quarter during the NFL preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on August 15, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. Jack Compton via Getty Images

Also, I’m not high on the NFC East this year. Philadelphia is aging at key positions and due to regress. The New York Giants, under new coach John Harbaugh, appear to be two years away. And I expect Washington to be closer to what it was last year (5-12) than in 2024 (12-5).

So let’s say the Cowboys go 4-2 within their division and 4-2 against six beatable non-NFC East opponents (Buccaneers, Cardinals, Jaguars and Titans at home; Houston and Indianapolis on the road). They would then only need to pick off two wins against Green Bay (road), Baltimore (in Brazil), San Francisco (home), Seattle (road) and the Rams (road) to hurdle their win total.

Also worth noting: The last time the Cowboys failed to win at least 10 games in three straight seasons was 2011-2013.

Momentum is a massive intangible in the NFL. So, too, is the schedule and how it sets up. Not exactly breaking news, I know – but the obvious is worth stating in reference to the Denver Broncos’ 2026 win total.

Last year, on the way to going 14-3 and capturing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Broncos gained steam while taking advantage of a highly favorable schedule.

After knocking off the lowly Titans in Week 1, Denver suffered consecutive losses to the Colts (road) and Chargers (home) by a combined four points. 

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From there, the Broncos went 13-1. They won nine games against teams that were on vacation by mid-January (Chiefs twice, Raiders twice, Bengals, Jets, Giants, Cowboys and Commanders), and two against opponents that lost their only playoff game (Chargers and Eagles).

Denver also defeated Houston (1-1 in the postseason) and lost to Jacksonville (another one-and-done playoff entrant).

In other words, the NFL schedule makers did the Broncos a solid last year. Spoiler alert: It won’t be a cakewalk in 2026.

After opening in Kansas City, Denver faces -- in order -- Jacksonville (home), the Rams (home), San Francisco (road), the Chargers (road) and Seattle (home). Good luck building early-season momentum.

Things ease up from there, with trips to Arizona, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and the Jets interspersed with home games against Kansas City, Las Vegas and Miami. But the finishing stretch is no joke: Buffalo (home), New England (road), the Chargers (home).

Will Denver again field an elite defense? Absolutely. Will quarterback Bo Nix make more strides in his third year with coach Sean Payton? Probably. 

Will it translate in the win-loss column like it did last fall? Doubtful.

I’m usually not a fan of bottom feeding when it comes to NFL win totals, because the margin for error is very thin. And I’m particularly leery of doing so when that bottom is as low as it can possibly be.

Alas, every rule has an exception, and this is one such instance. Because the 2026 Cardinals not only figure to be as dreadful as the 2025 version that went 3-14, they might be historically dreadful -- like the first 0-17 team in NFL history “dreadful.”

Here’s what Arizona has to offer:

• A first-year head coach (39-year-old Mike LaFleur, who has zero head coaching experience at any level).

• A journeyman first-string quarterback (34-year-old Jacoby Brissett, who is 20-45 over 65 starts in his 11-year career). And a journeyman second-string quarterback (Gardner Minshew). And a rookie third-string quarterback (third-round pick Carson Beck).

• A defense that allowed the sixth-most yards and fourth-most points a season ago (and did nothing to improve in the offseason).

Perhaps scariest of all is an absolutely merciless schedule. Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks six times -- after going 0-6 versus that trio last year -- but five of those games fall in the first 10 weeks (including all three road trips).

Now get a load of Arizona’s five early-season non-division opponents: Chargers (road), Giants (road), Lions, Broncos and Chiefs (road).

Arizona’s first “winnable” game? Maybe against visiting Washington in Week 11. That’s followed by four home games (Eagles, Jets, Raiders and 49ers) sandwiched around a Week 14 bye and a Week 16 trip to New Orleans. There’s a reason oddsmakers don’t have the Cardinals favored in a single game this season.

Can you find four victories? With this roster? I sure can’t.

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