Chow widens poll lead in Toronto mayoral race while voters demand balance on Ford
· Toronto Sun
See more Toronto Sun on Google — save as a Preferred Source
The gap in Toronto’s mayoral race is widening, leaving challengers scrambling for traction.
Visit saltysenoritaaz.com for more information.
New numbers released Thursday by Liaison Strategies show incumbent Olivia Chow holding a comfortable 11-point lead among decided voters, gaining 2% since Aug. 7 as main challenger Brad Bradford lost 2% support over the same time period.
Liaison’s David Valentin says the ballot is shifting towards a clearer Chow advantage.
“Among decided and leaning voters, Chow is at 49%, Bradford is at 38%, (Chris) Alexander is at 11%, and someone else is at 3%,” he said.
“Bradford’s challenge is that his vote is real, but narrower. Among decided and leaning voters, he leads men 47% to 39% and leads in Etobicoke 56% to 34%. Chow leads women 58% to 29%, downtown 59% to 27%, North York 51% to 35%, and Scarborough 46% to 37%.”
Undecided vote, Alexander are factors
Examining the undecided vote, Valentin said, shows 19% of those polled have yet to make up their minds.
“Chow is ahead, but there is still a large enough undecided pool for the campaign to matter,” he said.
What many consider to be a two-way race between a pair of soon-to-be-former city council colleagues is being upended by former Tory MP Alexander, whose intention on being Toronto’s next mayor is having an impact on potential voters.
“Alexander is becoming better known, but the movement is not one-way in his favour,” Valentin said.
“His not-familiar number has dropped from 61% to 48%, but his unfavourable number has climbed from 11% to 19%, while his favourable number has moved from 14% to 17%. Voters are learning who he is, and the first reaction is mixed.”
As for impressions of Chow’s performance during her first term as mayor, the statistical tie between those who think city hall is moving in either the right or wrong direction broke in August, with 48% saying the city’s moving in the right direction, compared to 45% who say otherwise, and 7% who aren’t sure.
“Two weeks ago right direction and wrong direction were tied at 46% each,” Valentin said.
“It is better ground for an incumbent than a tied or negative mood.”
Voters want collaboration with Queen’s Park
As for the issues, bike lanes — the subject of a back-and-forth court battle between advocates and Queen’s Park that last week saw Bradford announcing his opposition to the contentious Bloor West bike lanes — remains a key wedge issue.
Sixty-five per cent say a candidate’s position on bike lanes will be important to their vote — but the policy result is not a mandate to rip out the network,” Valentin said, noting “35% want more bike lanes, 34% want roughly the current number, and 26% want some removed.”
As for Toronto’s relationship with Queen’s Park, voters appear to be firm on what they want.
“Voters do not want a mayor who only collaborates or only fights,” Valentin said.
“Forty-eight per cent say the next mayor should balance both, compared with 25% who want the mayor to stand up forcefully and 19% who want the mayor to stand up forcefully and 19% who want collaboration.”
Half of those polled approve of how Chow handled the city’s relationship with Ontario Premier Doug Ford, while 40% felt otherwise.
“That is not universal approval, but it gives her room,” Valentin said.
Issues surrounding the naming of Yonge-Dundas Square are also hot topics, with 56% supporting the removal of the wildly unpopular “Sankofa Square” in favour of the more neutral “Toronto Square,” but only 40% say changing the name will be important to their vote, and 43% said any candidate’s stance on renaming the square wouldn’t make a difference to how they vote.