Why Mariners should be worried about Julio Rodriguez long-term
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Why Mariners should be worried about Julio Rodriguez long-term originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Seattle Mariners have had one of the most disappointing seasons of any team in Major League Baseball in 2026. They've dealt with some injury issues, but even when their star players are in the lineup, they're underperforming.
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While the attention has been on Cal Raleigh, outfielder Julio Rodriguez deserves plenty of the blame for the underwhelming season the Mariners are having.
In fact, ESPN's David Schoenfield revealed a few key stats that might have the Mariners worrying about Rodriguez's, and not just in 2026, but into the future.
Why Mariners should be worried about Julio Rodriguez
"But his batting average and on-base percentage have declined each season as he hasn't made the adjustments we've seen other players make, such as Pete Crow-Armstrong this season," Schoenfield writes. "At times, J-Rod has been one of the top all-around players in the league -- the Mariners can only hope that 2026 won't be a permanent step backward."
These two metrics, the batting average and on-base percentage for Rodriguez, have been in decline since his rookie season. Not once has he increased his average or on-base percentage from one year to the next.
In his 2022 rookie season, Rodriguez had a .284 batting average, followed up by .275, .273, and .267 averages in the next three seasons. This year, it's the biggest drop yet, down to a .245 average.
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His on-base percentage has followed a similar trend, starting at .345 in his rookie season, dropping to .333 in 2023, then .325 and .324 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Finally, he's down to just a .306 OBP this season for the Mariners.
While he's managed to stay a positive contributor on offense, posting a .708 OPS with a 104 OPS+, still above average, the steady decline of his offensive numbers is very worrying.
Rodriguez isn't just struggling offensively either, as Schonfield highlighted the "significant" defensive regression, going from plus-9 runs saved last season to minus-4 runs saved in 2026.
The Mariners should be a little bit worried about Rodriguez going forward, as this is not a good sign for the young Mariners outfielder keeping up his star-level production going into the future.
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