Charlotte Hornets Season Preview: Is 20 Wins A Realistic Ceiling For The Young Team?
· Yahoo Sports
The Charlotte Hornets had one of the strangest offseasons in the league, mostly because they didn’t really rebuild, but they also clearly walked away from the team that went 44-38 last season.
LaMelo Ball’s with the Timberwolves now. Miles Bridges is in Phoenix. Those accounted for a huge chunk of the ball-handling, scoring, and minutes on a team that finished ninth in the East and fell in the Play-In. In return, Charlotte added Naz Reid, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Dennis Schroder, Dorian Finney-Smith, some draft capital, and two first-round rookies in Hannes Steinbach and Christian Anderson.
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So this isn’t a normal young rebuild that should just be expected to lose 60 games. Coby White is 26, Reid’s 27, Allen’s 30, Schroder’s 32, O’Neale’s 33, and Grant Williams is 27. At the same time, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Tidjane Salaun, Liam McNeeley, Steinbach, and Anderson give them a genuinely interesting young core.
The real question is whether this mix stays competitive without Ball running things. Charlotte finished last season with the league’s fifth-best offensive rating at 119.4, the 12th-best defensive rating at 114.4, and a +5.0 net rating. Their actual 44-38 record undersold how good they were, as they had the fifth-most wins in the league since January.
They obviously won’t have the same offense without Ball orchestrating things, but looking at this roster, I just can’t see 20 wins as anywhere close to the ceiling.
Starting Lineup
Point Guard: Coby White
Shooting Guard: Kon Knueppel
Small Forward: Brandon Miller
Power Forward: Naz Reid
Center: Moussa Diabate
Coby White is getting his first shot to actually run this team, which is a much bigger job than what he had after arriving last February. Across all of 2025-26, White averaged 17.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 44.6% shooting and 36.2% from three. In his 21 games with Charlotte specifically, he came off the bench and put up 15.6 points in just 19.3 minutes.
He’s not Ball as a passer, and that’s really where this starting lineup shifts completely. Ball averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists last season, so White has to generate more offense without turning into a guy jacking up 20 shots a night. The good news is he’s got Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller right next to him, and neither one needs the ball in their hands constantly to score.
Knueppel’s rookie year already blew past what a normal first season looks like. The No. 4 pick started all 80 games and averaged 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 47.5% shooting, 42.5% from three, and 86.3% from the line. He was hitting 3.4 threes a night at just 20 years old. That kind of shooting gives White and Miller so much more room to work with, and honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if Knueppel’s flirting with 20 points a game this season.
Miller’s still the guy with the highest ceiling in this lineup for me. He finally stayed healthier last year, playing 65 games and averaging 20.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. His 38.3% from three on 8.2 attempts a night is a huge number, because it means Charlotte can run three real perimeter scorers together without the floor shrinking on them.
The frontcourt looks completely different now too. Naz Reid arrives averaging 13.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 36.2% from three. He’s not a traditional power forward, and that’s exactly why he works so well next to Diabate. Reid spaces the floor and attacks slower bigs, while Diabaté stays anchored near the rim doing the dirty work.
Diabate quietly had a genuinely good season, averaging 7.9 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting a ridiculous 63.1% from the field. Nobody’s calling plays for him, but this lineup doesn’t need that from him anyway. If he screens hard, rebounds, rolls, and protects the paint, there’s plenty of offense already surrounding him.
There’s no obvious superstar in this five anymore, and that’s the real problem staring everyone in the face. Still, having White, Knueppel, Miller, and Reid gives Charlotte four starters who can all score in different ways. For a team a lot of people are ready to write off as a rebuild, that’s genuinely not bad at all.
Bench
Point Guard: Dennis Schroder, Christian Anderson
Shooting Guard: Grayson Allen, Sion James, Pat Connaughton
Small Forward: Royce O’Neale, Liam McNeely, Tidjane Salaun
Power Forward: Grant Williams, Dorian Finney-Smith
Center: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hannes Steinbach
This is exactly where the “20-win ceiling” idea starts falling apart for me. Bad NBA teams just don’t usually have a second unit this loaded with proven players.
Schroder’s obviously not the player he was five years ago, but he still averaged 10.8 points and 4.9 assists across 70 games last season. He can run a second unit, push the pace, and take some of that creation burden off White. His 40.5% shooting and 32.9% from three weren’t great, so I wouldn’t want him hoisting a ton of shots, but as a backup point guard he’s more than serviceable.
Grayson Allen might actually be more interesting as a closer than a starter. He put up a career-high 16.5 points and 3.8 assists in Phoenix last season, though his three-point shooting dropped to 34.9% after hitting 42.6% the year before and leading the league at 46.1% back in 2023-24. Charlotte landed Allen and O’Neale plus a 2033 first in the Bridges trade, which already looks like solid business.
If Allen climbs back toward his career 40.3% mark from three, Charlotte suddenly has one of the better shooting groups in the East. Knueppel hit 42.5% last season, Miller hit 38.3%, Reid hit 36.2%, and O’Neale connected on 40.8% from 6.7 attempts a night. Charles Lee has a lot of combinations here that won’t kill his spacing.
Grant Williams brings something different at the four. He averaged 7.0 points and 3.9 rebounds last season while shooting 38.8% from three, and he can guard tougher forwards that Reid probably shouldn’t be chasing around for 30 minutes a night.
Kalkbrenner might be the guy in this group who eventually forces his way into a bigger role. As a rookie, the 7-foot-1 big averaged 7.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks in just 21.4 minutes, somehow shooting 75.3% from the field. Sure, most of those shots came right at the rim, but being that efficient while also protecting the basket already carves out a real NBA role for him.
The depth doesn’t even stop there. Sion James played all 82 games as a rookie, Liam McNeeley shot 40.0% from three in limited action, and Tijdane Salaun jumped from a rough 28.3% from three as a rookie all the way to 43.4% last season across 37 games. Still developmental pieces, sure, but they’re not total question marks anymore either.
Then you’ve got the two new rookies. Hannes Steinbach went No. 14 after averaging 18.5 points, an NCAA-leading 11.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.2 blocks at Washington. Christian Anderson went No. 18 after putting up 18.6 points and 7.5 assists on 41.5% shooting from three at Texas Tech.
Neither one needs to play 25 minutes right out of the gate, which is another real advantage of this roster. Charlotte gets to actually develop these two instead of throwing two rookies into starting roles just because nobody else was available.
Strengths
Shooting is probably the easiest strength to spot right away. Knueppel already established himself as one of the league’s best high-volume shooters as a rookie at 42.5%; O’Neale hit 40.8%, Miller shot 38.3%, Williams hit 38.8%, and both White and Reid have shown they can knock down enough threes to keep defenses honest. Allen had a down year at 34.9%, sure, but he’s still a career 40.3% shooter from deep.
That should make life a lot easier for Miller specifically. He doesn’t need to attack a packed paint on every single possession, and Knueppel’s right there to punish anyone who sends extra help. Charlotte probably won’t stay fifth in offensive rating after losing Ball’s 7.1 assists a night, but there’s still enough shooting and scoring here to be a genuinely respectable offense.
Depth is the other major advantage working in their favor. Schroder, Allen, O’Neale, Williams, and Kalkbrenner could all probably play real rotation minutes for a lot of teams around the league. Even Dorian Finney-Smith, who had a brutal offensive year at just 3.3 points on 33.3% shooting, has 445 career starts under his belt and can still give them another defensive wing if he gets his footing back.
The frontcourt runs deeper too. Reid can play either frontcourt spot, Diabate’s averaging 8.7 rebounds, Kalkbrenner brings legit 7-foot-1 size, and Steinbach arrives after leading all of Division I in rebounding. Charlotte used to get pushed around whenever their frontcourt rotation got thin last year. That shouldn’t happen nearly as easily now.
Weaknesses
The main weakness is pretty straightforward: who’s creating easy offense when things get ugly out there? Ball wasn’t exactly efficient last season, shooting just 40.7% from the field, but he still averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists. He could get into the paint, drag defenders off shooters, thread passes most guards simply can’t see, and manufacture something late in the shot clock when nothing else was working.
White only averaged 4.0 assists last year. Miller had 3.3. Knueppel had 3.4. Schroder can organize an offense fine, but he’s turning 33 soon and shot 40.5% last season. There’s plenty of decent passing here, sure, but there’s no true elite creator left on this roster anymore.
That could really hurt in tight games specifically. The regular season gives you plenty of chances to score through movement and spacing, but once defenses start switching everything late in close games, somebody has to actually beat their guy off the dribble. Miller’s probably the one who has to become that guy.
Defense raises some questions too, even with Charlotte finishing 12th in defensive rating last season. Diabate is active and Kalkbrenner blocks shots, sure, but neither has proven he can anchor a genuinely good defense for 30-plus minutes a night. Reid gives up size against bigger centers, White isn’t a lockdown point guard, and Knueppel’s still developing on that end of the floor.
O’Neale, Williams, James, and Finney-Smith can all help out here, but a lot of that defensive punch is coming off the bench. Lee might have to sacrifice some offense in certain matchups just to get enough stops on the floor.
Health matters a lot here too. Miller played 65 games last year after only managing 27 the season before; White played just 50 total games in 2025-26, and several of these veterans are already in their 30s. The depth helps cushion that a lot, but Charlotte still fundamentally needs Miller and Knueppel healthy, since those two are obviously the most important long-term pieces on this whole roster.
Conclusion: 20 Wins Isn’t Close To The Ceiling
Calling 20 wins the ceiling here feels way too low for a team that just won 44 games and posted a +5.0 net rating. Yes, losing Ball changes a lot. He was easily their best passer and the guy most capable of creating something out of nothing. Bridges also averaged 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, so Charlotte genuinely lost two major pieces from last year’s starting group.
But they didn’t replace them with G League fillers. Reid is averaging 13.6 points and 6.2 rebounds; Allen put up 16.5 points before; O’Neale averaged 9.8 points while shooting 40.8% from three; Schroder is still a perfectly useful backup point guard, and the Hornets added two more top-20 picks on top of already having a very good young core on the roster.
The real key here is the next jump from Knueppel and Miller specifically. Knueppel already averaged 18.5 points on 42.5% from three as a rookie, while Miller hit 20.2 points and 3.1 made threes a night. If both are around 20 points again, White adds another 15 to 18 on top of that, and Reid stays around his usual production level, this team simply has too much offensive firepower to look anything like a 20-win roster.
I don’t think they repeat last year’s 44 wins, honestly, since losing Ball’s creation is bound to hurt some, and there are too many new pieces here to expect everything to click immediately. But something in the 34 to 38 win range feels a lot more realistic to me, with another legitimate Play-In push absolutely on the table if Miller takes another step forward.
The Hornets aren’t a contender, and they probably did take one small step back this summer in exchange for a younger, more flexible roster going forward. But they’ve still got enough shooting, depth, veteran presence, and young talent to stay competitive on most nights.
For this particular roster, 20 wins should be treated as a disaster scenario rather than anything resembling the best-case outcome.