“Doesn’t Have to Win Another Race”- NASCAR Analyst Sound the Alarm on Denny Hamlin’s Chase Hopes With Blunt Kyle Larson Claim
· Yahoo Sports
Denny Hamlin had a clear advantage when the Chase began at Darlington. A buffer of 25 points, along with tracks on the schedule where he has run well historically. Everyone expected him to fire off well and extend his points lead. But after two race weekends in the Chase, the JGR driver has had to deal with a shaky start to his championship. And this has allowed his rivals to close the gap on him, especially Kyle Larson.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver snapped a 51-race winless streak at Gateway last weekend. A whopping 73 points earned in the process helped him climb the points standings. Larson is trailing points leader Hamlin by just nine points. And if he continues his consistent run, he could bag another championship, according to NASCAR insider Kelsey Christman.
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“Maybe this is Larson’s only win for the season. But this new playoffs system is designed to reward consistency. He might not win another race, but how much do we see him getting the stage points, consistently in the top 5, top 10. He doesn’t have to win another race to win the championship in my opinion,” Christman said on X.
Kyle Larson entered the Chase as the seventh seed, and after just two races, he’s now become a title contender, challenging Hamlin for the top spot. A top-five finish at Darlington, backed by a win, has put the No. 5 team back in contention. In a format where consistency could decide a championship, Larson might not need to win another race in the Chase.
Matt Kenseth won the 2003 NASCAR title with just a single win. Interestingly, the Chase didn’t even exist back then. But history tells us that one race win is enough for consistent drivers to claim the biggest prize in the sport. Not to forget, in this era of the Chase, there are stage points, which allow the teams to capitalize even if they don’t win races.
Larson bagged a total of 9 stage points at Darlington, where he led a race-high 99 laps. And he followed it up with 10 stage points and win at Gateway. It’s fair to say that the No. 5 team has gotten hot at the right time, and the No. 11 team is feeling the pressure after back-to-back average finishes.
Denny Hamlin had top-five speed at Darlington. But a bad pit stop after the Stage 2 run put him back in traffic, and he then got involved in a crash with Michael McDowell. An 18th-place finish at Darlington, followed by a top-10 run at Gateway, is not bad, but it’s not ideal if you look at how quickly his rivals are closing the gap on his points lead.
Not just Larson, but even Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney are within striking distance. Bell, after his Darlington win and a P19 at Gateway, is just 18 points behind leader Hamlin. Blaney, despite his brake rotor failure and a DNF, is just 33 points away from the top spot heading into Bristol.
A race win alone is worth 55 points under the new structure. Add the stage points into the mix, and a solid 60-point race could reshuffle the points scenario in just one race. While accepting that Larson’s rise has put pressure on his team, Hamlin remains confident about his approach to the championship race.
“With all of the tracks coming up, we have a good notebook on. Here was the first one where we were coming back with a new package. We haven’t been good all year with this package at this track for the first time. I feel like we’ve been given a second chance. We just have to go and be better now,” Hamlin said after the race at Gateway.
Indeed, the No. 11 team needs to get better. While 30-35-point races are decent, they might not be good enough to win the championship. Hamlin and his team will need to fire off strongly at Bristol, another short track, where track position is going to be key in deciding the fate of the race.
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