10 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 5
· Yahoo Sports
Now that we’re getting into the meat of the conference season, things start to change a little bit. The spreads are a little bit off because of everything that happened in non-conference action – opinions get easily warped – there’s a greater intensity, and this is where things go really right or off-the-rails wrong.
However, don’t go crazy. Don’t start thinking Michigan and Penn State are awful just because they lost on desperate last drives. Don’t start thinking Indiana isn’t amazing just because the Northwestern game wasn’t a wipeout. And now, after finally coming up with a winning week after treading water at .500 … let’s have some fun.
Results So Far: 29-26
– Week 5 Schedule & Predictions
– CFN Expert Picks Week 5
10. Alabama at Mississippi State
Line: Alabama -5.5
ATS Pick: Alabama
Game Preview and Prediction
I do like this Mississippi State team. Kamario Taylor will get all the love and affection from the broadcast, but the Bulldog defense is the real deal, with the ability to hold the Tide running game in check.
Whatever. Yeah, the Miss State thing has been fun, but this Alabama team is the real deal. (I can’t get past watching it wipe out South Carolina 49-18 with ease, and the Bulldogs needing to ball out to get past the Gamecocks by seven.)
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9. Navy at Air Force
Line: Point Total 46.5
ATS Pick: Under
Full disclosure, there’s a big part of me that sees both sides of this – I won’t feel offended in any way if you stay 500 yards away.
The Army-Navy game usually leans under, and Army-Air Force is always freakishly under no matter what. Air Force vs. Navy, though, is a bit of a different animal – last year was 34-31 Falcons.
It feels like this is a tad high, only because these are the second (Navy) and third (Air Force) rushing teams in America. (By the way, Army is No. 1, and the three service academies are the only three teams to average over 300 rushing yards per game.)
Both teams will run, and the clock will keep on moving. Navy’s loss to Florida Atlantic got to 68 points because the Owls threw it 33 times and ran a gajillion plays, and I’m not quite buying that the high-scoring Air Force games – 70 (NDSU) and 69 (Nevada) – over the last two weeks apply here.
8. Texas State at San Diego State
Sep 5, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas State Bobcats quarterback Brad Jackson (8) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn ImagesLine: Point Total 57.5
ATS Pick: Over
First and foremost, hoping everyone feels better fast – so please forgive how gross it is to take a medical issue and twist it into a football pick. San Diego State’s football team has a crazy mumps outbreak that hit an already injury-riddled bunch.
I sort of like Texas State -8.5, but even more, I’m going with the comp of last season’s New Mexico Bowl against North Texas, when the Aztecs were missing a bulk of defensive starters and were down to a fourth-string quarterback. They lost 49-47 by going full-on chuck-it-and-(bleep)-it – the Bobcats are dead last in the nation in pass defense. That, and/or Texas State might just score 58 on its own.
7. Eastern Michigan at UMass
Line: UMass -5.5
ATS Pick: UMass
Eastern Michigan doesn’t do the whole offense thing very well. It’s one saving grace in this might be turnovers – it doesn’t give a ton of them away – and UMass is capitalizing on everything, but there’s no Eagle downfield passing attack to open things up.
No, the Minutemen haven’t beaten anyone decent since the Rutgers shocker – two FCS teams and a Sacramento State team that’s still very FCSey – but they’re at home, there’s a buzz, and they’re doing just about everything right.
6. Auburn at Tennessee
Line: Tennessee -6.5
ATS Pick: Tennessee
Game Preview and Prediction
Tennessee is No. 2 in the nation in sacks, only behind LSU. The Auburn offense is fun, but it can’t do a thing to keep defenses from getting into the backfield – it’s 133rd in the nation in sacks allowed. That, and it’s a home game. It might be close, and there will be some sweating in the fourth quarter, but this is simply a Tennessee Is The Better Team pick.
5. Maryland at Nebraska
Line: Nebraska -14.5
ATS Pick: Nebraska
Game Preview and Prediction
Nebraska isn’t imploding like it normally does. This year’s team isn’t turning the ball over. It’s playing sound on the lines, and it’s doing what a team with a mediocre schedule is supposed to – it’s winning easily.
The 31-13 victory over Northwestern was impressive – the Huskers beat up Pat Fitzgerald’s Spartans – and Maryland’s 54-3 loss to UCLA, wasn’t. It won’t exactly be Mike Rozier and Jeff Smith cranking up the Big Red Machine, but the Husker running game will take over fast.
4. UTEP at New Mexico
Sep 19, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; New Mexico Lobos quarterback Toa Fa’avae (13) warms up before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn ImagesLine: New Mexico -22.5
ATS Pick: New Mexico
New Mexico is the underground band that hasn’t been discovered quite yet, but has the critics buzzing.
It only lost to Oklahoma 14-6 and walloped the other three teams on the slate, including a New Mexico State team that was fantastic on Thursday night against Western Kentucky.
The Lobos are tough, run well, and never, ever turn the ball over. UTEP doesn’t have the offense to do much of anything in this – by the way, it lost to Oklahoma 51-0.
3. Washington at USC
Line: Point Total 58.5
ATS Pick: Over
Game Preview and Prediction
Washington seems to be suffering from a case of Doesn’t Really Look Like It’s Interested In Playing College Footballitis, but the cure for that might be a change-of-scenery road game against a defense that made the Rutgers passing game look competent.
Demond Williams Jr. is overdue for a breakout game – the Huskies will keep things moving. The passing games will push each other in a fun back-and-forth fight. Four of USC’s five games have hit 68 or more.
2. and 1. Florida at Missouri
Sep 26, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Aaron Philo (12) gestures after a touchdown against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn ImagesLine: Florida -4.5, Point Total 57.5
ATS Pick: Florida, Over
Game Preview and Prediction
I finally hit a No. 1 pick last week – over on the 60.5 USC-Oregon point total – but even then, there were disastrous circumstances with the Dante Moore injury. This pick has become dangerous – I’ve already gone into great detail about how many insane things have happened in the games featured here.
This time, I’m lumping in my two favorite picks of the week together, and if it doesn’t work, so be it – it’s the No. 1 pick; things happen.
I wish I could buy into Missouri, but I’m just not there. It’s a good team, and there’s explosion, but it’ll have to keep up the pace with a Florida attack that hasn’t suffered the slightest hiccup so far.
The Florida -4.5 is nice, but that’s along for the ride with the 57.5-point total. The Gators and Auburn got to 83. The win over Ole Miss last year hit 90. The opener against Florida Atlantic was 66-21, and the Gators hung 52 before taking it easy on Campbell.
If the over doesn’t hit, short memory, tip your cap, and it’s on to the next play.
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.