NFL Week 5 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

I won! I picked a team in NFL Survivor last week that didn’t even score a touchdown, but who cares, I won! Survivor (or Eliminator) this season has been a mess. If your contest is still going, good job, because that means at least two participants have been right through four weeks, and there aren’t that many of those. I’m 2-2 in my advice, and I’m supposed to be smart. Let’s make it a winning streak, though. So check out my Week 5 pick for Survivor contests. And while we’re here, you can use our NFL Betting Model and our Bet Tracker to make a pick for yourself.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 5

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so it’s not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can’t pick a team I’ve picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

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Bye Weeks

We’re on to my favorite time of year — picks I can’t get wrong! If you don’t play, you can’t win, but also I won’t pick you, so woohoo for easy. Carolina Panthers Kansas City Chiefs That’s two off the board.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Detroit) Atlanta Falcons (vs. Baltimore) Buffalo Bills (@ LA Rams) Green Bay Packers (vs. Chicago) Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Denver) Los Angeles Rams (vs. Buffalo) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Jacksonville in London) San Francisco 49ers (@ Seattle) Seattle Seahawks (vs. San Francisco) Some of these teams will win but you can’t confidently say so, considering who they’re facing. That’s nine more gone, 21 to go.

They’re Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Cleveland Browns (@ NY Jets) Houston Texans (@ Tennessee) Miami Dolphins (vs. Cincinnati) New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota) New York Giants (@ Washington) New York Jets (vs. Cleveland) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Indianapolis) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Dallas) Tennessee Titans (vs. Houston) Washington Commanders (vs. NY Giants) Ten more eliminations leaves us with 11 remaining.

Island Games

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or an overseas 9:30 a.m. ET game. There aren’t many left this week, but I still want to note them. Baltimore Ravens (@ Atlanta) Dallas Cowboys (vs. Tampa Bay) Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Philadelphia in London Three more gone, eight left — our eight contenders.

The Contenders

Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Chicago Bears (@ Green Bay)

Model Projection: Bears 27.07-26.46, Bears 51.4% win rate Pros: Ben Johnson is really in his bag this season, and the running game is absolutely thriving. Cons: Do you really want to pick the Bears to beat the Packers if you have options? Even with the Packers a mess, that’s scary.

Cincinnati Bengals (@ Miami)

Model Projection: Bengals 24.71-19.61, Bengals 64.1% win rate Pros: Well, they’re playing the Dolphins. Cons: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins hurt?

Denver Broncos (@ LA Chargers)

Model Projection: Broncos 22.64-20.78, Broncos 55.3% win rate Pros: No one has been more disappointing this season than the Chargers, and now Rashawn Slater is hurt. Cons: The Broncos are 2-2, but they’ve been pretty disappointing too. On the road in a divisional game is concerning.

Detroit Lions (@ Arizona)

Model Projection: Lions 30.25-24.24, Lions 63.5% win rate Pros: Arizona has looked terrible since surprising the Chargers in Week 1, while Detroit has an elite offense. Cons: You, reading this, might be able to go for 80 yards or so against this Detroit defense.

Indianapolis Colts (@ Pittsburgh)

Model Projection: Steelers 26.19-22.25, Colts 39.9% win rate Pros: The Colts have won two in a row, and the Steelers just fell to the Browns. Cons: Athan Kaliakmanis looked almost competent against this pass defense, what might Aaron Rodgers do?

Las Vegas Raiders (@ New England)

Model Projection: Patriots 27.08-19.55, Raiders 30.7% win rate Pros: The Raiders are a rough final possession Sunday away from 4-0, while Drake Maye is a week removed from looking like the disaster quarterback of the year. Cons: Maye righted the ship in a big way Sunday and beat Josh Allen.

Minnesota Vikings (@ New Orleans)

Model Projection: Saints 22.74-20.24, Vikings 42.8% win rate Pros: This defense is absolutely terrifying. Tyler Shough might be the next one seeing ghosts. Cons: Can the offense please produce even one touchdown?

New England Patriots (vs. Las Vegas)

Model Projection: Patriots 27.08-19.55, Patriots 69.3% win rate Pros: Maye righted the ship last week, and if you’d asked this question in the preseason, the Patriots would have been a locked-in pick. Cons: Well, we aren’t asking this question in the preseason. The Raiders actually look good!

The Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (@ Miami)

Do I care that the Bengals are maybe down their top two receivers and might be targeting Dohnte Meyers and Mike Gesicki this week? I do not. I can’t come up with a good reason to pick against them this week. (I will say, I almost broke my rules above and went with the Texans this week. I would be flabbergasted if the Titans beat them to send them to 0-5. If you’re scared of the Chase/Higgins injuries, feel free to pivot.)

Honorable Mention

Detroit Lions (@ Arizona) Houston Texans (@ Tennessee) 2026 record: 2-2 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles (W) Week 3: Seahawks (L) Week 4: Vikings (W) Week 5: Bengals

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