Inside Greg Luca's AP Top 25 ballot: Learning from our mistakes with the SEC
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The trend started in the first week of the 2026 season, when LSU became the biggest riser in the AP Top 25 by leaping into the top 10 following a blowout win against Clemson.
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Ole Miss came next two weeks later, vaulting all the way into the top five after an emotional home win over those LSU Tigers.
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Greg Luca's AP Top 25 ballotDifference from poll results in parentheses
1. Georgia (0)
2. Ohio State (+2)
3. Notre Dame (-1)
4. Miami (-1)
5. Indiana (0)
6. Alabama (0)
7. Texas (0)
8. Utah (+3)
9. BYU (-1)
10. UCLA (+2)
11. Mississippi State (+5)
12. Missouri (+1)
13. Ole Miss (-4)
14. Iowa (+3)
15. Texas Tech (-5)
16. Houston (+4)
17. Nebraska (+12)
18. USC (+1)
19. Kentucky (-4)
20. Tennessee (-6)
21. LSU (+1)
22. Northwestern (+3)
23. Oklahoma (+7)
24. Wake Forest (-3)
25. Oklahoma State (-7)
When Florida knocked off Ole Miss the following week, the Gators had their turn as the AP poll's biggest riser, surging up 13 spots into the top 10.
Last week, the pattern repeated yet again. This time, Missouri scored a one-sided win against Florida and made the biggest leap in the AP poll by jumping up 11 places to No. 14.
Taking stock of that group at about the midpoint of the regular season, LSU is narrowly clinging to a spot in the rankings at No. 22, Ole Miss has dipped back to No. 9, and Florida is barely receiving votes. Missouri managed to avoid an immediate letdown against Texas A&M, but otherwise, the SEC's meteoric riser each week hasn't always panned out.
So, no, this is not a mea culpa about Mississippi State, or teams like Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern, which I am willing to forgive for losses to elite opponents.
Through each week of my debut season with an AP Top 25 ballot, we'll take you inside my thought process behind the picks, and this week starts with a warning about learning from our mistakes when evaluating Kentucky, the latest SEC hotshot.
After a 35-34 home win against LSU in overtime, Kentucky is the biggest riser in this week's poll, going from unranked to No. 15.
For a second straight game, Kentucky coach Will Stein elected and succeeded on a walkoff two-point conversion attempt at the end of the first overtime, winning at South Carolina last week by the same 35-34 margin.
LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY - OCTOBER 10: Brock Coffman #12 of the Kentucky Wildcats returns a punt for a touchdown against the LSU Tigers at Kroger Field on October 10, 2026 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)Everyone loves the elation of a breakthrough win and the ensuing field storming, but compelling drama often doesn't equate to a strong resume. The Wildcats are a pair of failed two-point tries from being 3-3 and out of the conversation - a fragility reflected in Kentucky's No. 47 ranking in SP+ efficiency.
At the same time, Kentucky's only loss is to Alabama, and in the interest of consistency, the Wildcats shouldn't be dinged too harshly for having just one loss to a top-10 opponent.
I slotted Kentucky at No. 19 in my ballot - four spots below where the consensus landed. But I also had the Wildcats at No. 22 two weeks ago, before all the overtime dramatics. At the time, only 13 of the other 69 voters were higher on Kentucky than I was. Now, 47 voters have the Wildcats ranked above where I've placed them.
Part of this evaluation is the shifting landscape of the SEC. Last week, I was fine with LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Florida and Ole Miss all propping each other up to different extents.
But after Florida was routed 38-19 by South Carolina and LSU fell to Kentucky, the whole framework starts to lose stability.
Is Ole Miss really all that special for having wins against Louisville and LSU, with a blowout loss to Florida that suddenly looks less forgivable? Is Missouri's victory over Florida worth what we originally thought? And what does that mean for Mississippi State's signature win over Missouri?
GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 10: Nyck Harbor #8 of the South Carolina Gamecocks catches a pass for a touchdown against Bryce Thornton #1 of the Florida Gators during the first half of a game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on October 10, 2026 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images) (James Gilbert/Getty Images)Then there's Tennessee, which doesn't factor into this head-to-head web but inexplicably moved up to No. 14 after barely surviving Arkansas. Until the Volunteers can sort their quarterback position and find more consistent offense, I'm OK with being among the lowest on them at No. 20.
LSU has a case to stay above Tennessee, as the Tigers still rank No. 9 in SP+ thanks to being so dominant in their wins and very close in their losses. But if the analytics are right, LSU will move up once they prove it in the win column, not before, so I have the Tigers at No. 21.
With the SEC's second tier looking more muddled, undefeated BYU, Utah and UCLA all jumped into the top 10 on my ballot. Most voters have Texas Tech in that group, too, but those who have paid attention week after week know the Red Raiders are yet to deliver a single performance that inspired any confidence, even if the wins against Houston and Oregon State are aging well.
And yes, I remain among the highest on Mississippi State, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern, which each have one loss against an opponent in the top six.
Maybe that thought process will turn out to be mistaken, too. We still have half the season to find out.
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There’s more to San Antonio with the Express-News. Subscribe today for just 25¢.This article originally published at Inside Greg Luca's AP Top 25 ballot: Learning from our mistakes with the SEC.