Behind the Curtain: Texas is the #1 story of America
· Axios
No state looms larger, more dominant or more instructive about the future of American politics, governance and AI than Texas.
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Why it matters: Texas is suddenly — and unexpectedly — the American story. It's the battleground and proving ground for immigration policy, AI, data center growth, Hispanic voting patterns, and the direction of the Democratic Party.
Put simply, it seems nearly impossible for Republicans to retain the presidency in 2028 without the Lone Star State. And it seems nearly impossible for AI to keep growing so fast if Texas rejects or dramatically slows it.
- Texas is so populous, so wealthy, so Hispanic, so energy-rich — and now so top-to-bottom blue — that both parties see it as a de facto nation-state capable of reordering ... everything.
"Texas is everything," Steve Bannon, one of the top voices of MAGA, told us. Bannon has been so Texas-obsessed all year that he took his influential podcast, "War Room," on the road to the "forward lines" of Texas for months at a time.
- Bannon said Texas needs to be an early focus for Stephen Miller, the new White House chief of staff. Houston Mayor John Whitmire on Friday directed police to limit cooperation with ICE, saying: "Elections matter." Bannon said he expects many more such actions, with Texas becoming a sanctuary state "quickly unless dramatic action is taken."
- "Trump is going to be forced to federalize the border," Bannon said, either with National Guard troops or federal law-enforcement agents.
The big picture: Texas was red as blood on Nov. 2, the day before midterms. Now it'll have a Democratic governor ... lieutenant governor ... attorney general ... comptroller ... land commissioner ... agriculture commissioner ... Texas House ... and U.S. senator, 37-year-old James Talarico.
- Talarico won by double digits over state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Gina Hinojosa — who'll be Texas' first Latina governor — upset three-term Gov. Greg Abbott. Democrats won all four state Supreme Court seats on the ballot and are set to flip Texas' Board of Education.
- The new Texas House speaker is likely to be an 87-year-old Black woman, Senfronia Thompson, a Houston Democrat first elected during the Watergate era.
Everything's bigger in Texas, especially in politics going forward:
1. South Texas' border counties broke the GOP's thesis. Republicans built their Texas future on South Texas Hispanics, based on President Trump's performance there in 2024.
- Talarico won Hidalgo by 46 points, Cameron by 38 and Webb by 47. Trump had narrowly carried all three!
- The lesson: The Valley didn't realign. It swung — or came home to Democrats, as many South Texans would say.
2. Immigration came home, too. Republicans' border-security argument was undermined as President Trump's ICE, cheered on by Abbott, hit South Texas' rural counties and then moved hard-line enforcement into cities across the state.
- Hidalgo voters were driven by a sluggish economy and the historic immigration crackdown. In Harris County (Houston), voters cited immigration, corruption and GOP leaders' policies as motivating their votes — and 72% of voters in Hispanic precincts in Harris County backed Hinojosa.
- The takeaway: Voters wanted a secure border and undocumented criminals removed. They didn't sign up for enforcement in their own neighborhoods.
3. Texas is now ground zero for the AI wars. Elon Musk, the world's richest person, moved to business-friendly Texas from California along with other tech elites, and brought along Tesla's headquarters.
- Musk posted a reminder Saturday to incoming leaders: "SpaceX and Tesla have prospered in Texas, because we were not constantly operating under an oppressive and extractive state government. ... As California became increasingly difficult, due to extreme taxes and overregulation, we moved our major domestic expansions and HQ to Texas."
- Musk made himself a midterm issue, spending $225 million on races in Texas — about half of his national total. Talarico ran straight at him: "This Senate seat doesn't belong to Elon Musk." After the rout, Musk said on X that data centers in space were looking "pretty appealing."
Texas was on track to become home to one of the world's largest concentrations of data centers, but that buildout is now at risk. In August, 57% of Texan registered voters in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll opposed a data center in their own community, including 43% of Republicans, 60% of suburbanites and 60% of rural voters.
- Gov. Greg Abbott (R) tried to pivot from his bullishness on data centers but still lost reelection. On Aug. 3, he paused new data center grid connections. Hinojosa called data centers a physical manifestation of a governor doing the bidding of monied interests. Sid Miller, the Republican ag commissioner, said he didn't vote for Abbott and blamed him for not listening to Texans on data centers: "He needs to go."
4. All-of-the-above energy now has a Democratic landlord. Texas pumps the oil, drills the gas, harnesses the wind, runs its own grid — and powers the AI boom.
- Hinojosa pledged a moratorium on new data center approvals until the Legislature passes protections in 2027. One energy lawyer called it "a brand-new day in Texas" for policy once considered settled.
- The challenge: Wage war on oil and gas, and Texas snaps back red. Govern like Texans have through much of the state's history, and Democrats could get a lease measured in decades.
5. The Hispanic vote is America's biggest swing bloc. Texas had a record-setting surge in Latino turnout, and Talarico won 68% of them.
- Two years ago, that same bloc gave Trump the Valley. This time, the more heavily Hispanic the county, the heavier the leftward shift.
6. Republicans suddenly have a 2028 math problem. Texas has the second-most electoral votes, after California. Take out the Lone Star State's 40 electoral votes and Trump would have had only a two-vote cushion in 2024.
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said at a post-election news conference in Tallahassee: "If the Republican Party doesn't have Texas as an anchor, then we are not going to be viable nationally."
The bottom line: For 50 years, California told you where America was headed. Now Texas does — and it just changed its mind.
- Go deeper: What Tuesday's election results mean for Texas.