Yankees fans no longer believe that they will win the AL East
· Yahoo Sports
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It’s been a tough three-to-four weeks for Yankees fans, as they’ve seen their team that once stood 46-28 with the best record in the American League stumble through a 4-14 stretch. It was enough for the upstart Rays to pass them for first place in the AL East, and even though the Yanks have won their last couple contests, they still trail Tampa Bay by four games.
The Rays also have one of the lighter remaining slates by current strength of schedule, so that’s not helping matters, nor is the fact that the Yankees will have to sweep their only remaining series against the Rays (a four-game set at the Bronx in late September that includes a doubleheader) to take the head-to-head tiebreaker that didn’t go their way last year against Toronto. The second half formally begins next Friday, but mathematically, we are already halfway through the 162-game slate, and FanGraphs currently projects the Rays with a 59-percent chance to take the division. The Yankees sit at 38 percent with none of the remaining teams sitting above 1.5 percent.
As such—and given the gloomy vibes around the team this week—it’s not surprising to see that per our SB Nation Reacts results, only about a quarter of the Yankees fans who responded said that they believe this team will win the AL East. A total of 18 percent even predicted that they would miss the playoffs entirely:
The most popular vote has the Yankees finishing in the spot they presently occupy and the one they held at the end of the 2025 regular season: the top AL Wild Card and hosting a first-round best-of-three against the second-best Wild Card. The Yankees survived that rumble with the Red Sox last year, but it certainly put them behind the eight-ball against the top-seeded Blue Jays, and that could certainly happen again this year with Tampa Bay.
While I think the Yankees have played poorly of late and have some concerning red flags, I think the rest of the American League is lousy enough that they should still make the playoffs. Indeed, FanGraphs gives that a 96.3-percent chance. Could that still happen? Of course. The Wild Card mix is a jumble right now, and if the Yankees concede any further ground from their 5.5-game lead on the last spot, then it could get nervy.
However, even at their most frustrating, I think it’s always best to remember that we personally view the Yankees with closest possible microscope. We see all their flaws and sometimes have to take a step back and consider that all the other teams—yes, even the Rays and Dodgers—have warts as well that their own fans are zeroing in on. That’s especially true with all the teams in the AL Wild Card muck. The Mariners are in that final Wild Card spot and they’re a game under .500. The Twins, Astros, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles are all within three games, and those are very flawed teams. And yes, I do think the Yankees still have a legitimate shot at regaining the ground ceded to the Rays and winning the AL East outright. The guys on the field just have to play a little closer to the backs of their baseball cards, and they’ll need Aaron Judge to at least be close to his pre-MVP peak with the bat when he returns from the IL, compromised rib and all. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón’s recoveries will also be essential. (If Giancarlo Stanton can come back, great! It will just be best to keep health expectations low.)
In short, the deficit is concerning and I don’t blame anyone who’s picking against the Yankees for the AL East right now. But the race isn’t over, and I absolutely still think this is a playoff team.
Moving on to some fun other survey results, young Yankees ace Cam Schlittler is the prohibitive favorite for the AL Cy Young Award at this point. This one wasn’t just a poll of Yankees fans, either; half of participating baseball fans writ large think he’s Cy Schlittler:
Schlittler is aiming to join an impressive fraternity of six other Yankees to win pitching’s greatest honor: Gerrit Cole (2023), Roger Clemens (2001), Ron Guidry (1978), Sparky Lyle (1977), Whitey Ford (1961), and Bob Turley (1958). The 25-year-old would easily be the youngest Yankee to win a Cy Young, surpassing Guidry and Turley, who took home the prize in their age-27 seasons.
That being said, I often recall something that Hall of Famer CC Sabathia once said: Cy Youngs are won in the second half. Indeed, when he won his only Cy in 2007 with Cleveland, the big southpaw stepped his game up with a 2.76 ERA (62 ERA- in that high-octane era for offense) across 107.2 innings, good for 3.4 fWAR in that half alone. I also think about the 2015 NL Cy Young race, which primarily featured Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer in the first half until Jake Arrieta posted one of the most remarkable second halves we’ve ever seen.
Cam is the favorite, no doubt. Nonetheless, he has a long way to go to seal up that honor. I still feel good about the guy! He’s a thrill to watch.
These survey results are sponsored by FanDuel.